Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : QQQ & DIA - chat & chart -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Khymn who wrote (408)	2/28/2003 3:36:12 AM
From: Chris McConnel	Respond to of 795

>> Really? Who are those folks? (This is a partial list... there are others i've read, but can't find the right articles...) At the year progresses, the overriding issue upon investor and trader minds alike continues to be the potential for a conflict with Iraq. Many have stated that upon the resolution of this matter -- a quick and successful prosecution of the war with no incipient damage to oil production capabilities over and above their current state -- the U.S. and world equity markets will move significantly higher. While this is quite likely, I don’t believe it will be to the large degree many expect. The equity market outcome and the economic outcome will likely be two wholly different scenarios initially, but they will eventually come back into some type of balance. I believe that the markets will experience a relief rally spurred mainly by short-covering, and also by dwindling amounts of mutual fund cash being put to work in “high beta” stocks such as technology. If recent history has shown anything, it is that portfolio managers are willing to take on additional risk in order to outperform their relative benchmark indices. moneycentral.msn.com The logic of war I’m getting a lot of questions about how the market will react once war breaks out. It appears clear from the market’s recent gyrations that anything that brings the war closer is viewed favorably, while any action that further delays war with Iraq sends investors out of stocks. The twisted logic here is that the market hates uncertainty, and investors want to see a speedy resolution in Iraq to reduce uncertainty. (Of course, there is the uncertainty regarding North Korea among other things, but the market seems to be more Iraq-focused right now.) ... In the long term, I’m still not convinced that this will be more than a bear market rally of roughly 6 weeks or so. However, the last two times we saw readings over 55% Bears in the AAII poll were in mid-July and mid-October 2002, right ahead of sharp rallies. While a number of other sentiment indicators are not as clear here as they were at those bottoms, this pessimism has me wanting to lighten up our short positions and get ready to look for new bullish positions. moneycentral.msn.com Roll with the punches As we approach what appears to be a certain war, the superiority of American technology will become apparent very early in the game. This should lead to a swift, sharp rally. moneycentral.msn.com

To: Jon Khymn who wrote (408)	2/28/2003 3:51:58 AM
From: Chris McConnel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 795

(and more...) Pros May Play War Games, But Individuals Shouldn't By Eric Gillin Staff Reporter Despite the raging debate, most people take it as a given that war in Iraq is inevitable. Taken with almost the same level of certainty is that it will spur a big short-term rally. thestreet.com War Rally Yes, but From Lower Levels James "Rev Shark" De Porre 2/25/03 10:49 AM ET The panic selloff on the consumer confidence data is producing a pretty good oversold bounce but I'm watching for the bears to reload and take us back down. In my closing post on Friday, Feb. 14, I stated: "Nice call by the Kassmaster for a positive day, but if he wants to make another wager about whether or not we will hit a new low for the year within the next three weeks, I'll be happy to oblige. I'll let him set the stakes if he is so inclined. I don't think we have seen the low for the year, and I'm looking for another dip before we go to war." The DJIA has breached its closing low this morning and the S&P 500 is close as well. I think we'll crack those levels with a bit more emphasis shortly. I have been receiving way too much mail from folks who want to believe that Iraq is fully priced into this market. Even it is you have to wonder if the market has fully discounted this struggling economy. I think there will be a war-relief rally at some point but continue to look for it to develop from lower levels. Trying to Time the War By Scott Reamer Special to RealMoney.com 02/19/2003 02:47 PM EST So net/net, here's what we can reasonably assume: A war could start between Feb. 27 and March 6. How successful and quick it will be remains to be seen (I have no edge in discerning that.) This could very well cause some sort of rally in stocks that is ultimately fadeable once investors realize that second-half results aren't benefiting from a resolution to the Iraq issue and that the same old economic issues that worried investors before Iraq dominated the headlines aren't going away. The hard part for investors and traders at this stage is to determine if that rally has already started or will start from lower levels. That makes the next five to 10 trading days pretty important. Stay tuned. thestreet.com