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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (17517)	3/2/2003 12:34:41 AM
From: Tim Bagwell	Respond to of 42834

Back in Jan 2000 I thought I understood Brinker to say that the move to only 65% cash was driven by the need to limit capital gains tax liability. There was little more offered in the way of an explanation. Now in hindsight and thinking about it more, the 65% move doesn't make much sense if he had had any confidence in his model prediction. If he had good confidence he would have recommended something closer to a 100% cash position with the understanding that some would need to limit tax liability. The point being that you don't make model recommendations based on tax liability. It makes no sense to mix your model recommendations with your tax strategy. The only reasoning that makes sense is that Brinker simply did not have good confidence in his model. This is born out by his continued bullish tilt well into 2000 which culminated in the QQQ debacle. Knowing Brinker's motivation is key to knowing how much you should trust his future calls. I would love to see Brinker's model succeed in calling a CB rally. But I've had years of observation to measure the depth and breadth of Brinker's experience and wisdom. Balancing what I have observed has moved me over to the skeptics camp. For me the turning point was the QQQ debacle because it showed how Brinker had been faking timing skills. It was like getting a glimpse into Brinker's bag of tricks and finding that it was all just a bunch of cheap gags.