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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (19346)	3/1/2003 7:15:53 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Respond to of 206321

Energy, that article sums up my point exactly, and this weeks rig count confirmed it. We are at a top, and producers will not get caught holding the bag on these rediculously high prices. They know as I do, that inventories RISE faster then they deplete, based simply on what happened the last time ng spiked. In the mean time these product prices are KILLING our economy, and with it DEMAND going forward. I hope many are taking this ride up as an opportunity to dump/sell/short, because when we start to pick up steam osx 80 will be a pipe dream. By the way, for my MAGABULL friends, looks like march setting up to be one of the coldest on record. Good luck friends

To: energyplay who wrote (19346)	3/1/2003 7:16:04 AM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206321

<<One prediction that I would like to make is that as soon as prices start coming down below a certain level, or it appears inventories may be headed for normal level, I expect drilling to be cut back or postponed quickly. No one wants to get caught drilling heavily in a falling price environment. >> EP - I remember Jim_P's weekly comments that the storage fills were improving showing the limited response we had in 2001. That was the clearest sign to exit and it should be one this time as well. As a recognized hyper permabull here, my extreme thoughts at this time may be discounted a bit. I think at this point if the industry worked in overdrive from today, we would still enter next Winter with 2,300 - 2,500 bcf and production maybe a little better than todays. This ensures a massive problem next Winter unless we have another 100 year record warm one. I dont worry about supply catching up to demand any time before Winter 2004/2005. As soon as supply improves and prices retreat demand will come back from oil.

To: energyplay who wrote (19346)	3/1/2003 8:35:37 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206321

<``There is too much uncertainty,'' said Roger Plank, chief financial officer at Houston-based Apache, which extracts oil and natural gas on six continents. ``People aren't going to rush to drill, regardless of the prices.'' > APA has been my biggest position, and I've racked up a 20% plus gain in it. But, I don't like this response to the situation from them. The guy says, "no rush to drill", but adding only six rigs, that's a full retreat. IMO it's going to be critical that as investors we go with companies that engage in growing or at least replacing their reserves. 18 rigs won't cut it. At this point in the cycle (after all it's March 1st and we are in a crisis, time for these outfits to get off the pot), I now intend to start rotating out of slug managements (who suffer from errors of pessimism) like APA, and reposition into the CHKs of the world. Further, although I see nothing wrong with hedging half of production at $4-5, or even all of it at $7-8, I'd like to know who the overhedgers are: everything below $4. A useful exercise (at least for me) would be to post bullets here or on oilviews that show cash cost, production levels, hedge position, and commentary on current exploration plans. I for one really appreciate just a good solid bullet like this one: Message 18643473 Any takers?