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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (224701)	3/1/2003 11:07:10 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

KT, my head is spinning. Inflation, deflation, stagflation monetary, price wise. I like Roach who says that with $2 gas we are screwed no matter how you slice it. Of course this is all bullish, DROOY is bottomless, market is topless and gold sucks.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (224701)	3/1/2003 9:17:04 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I think you can have slowing growth due to higher commodity prices and it can take quite a long time for the marginal use of the commodities to subside and feedback to the prices. supply / demand -- we've got supply problems right now in a stagnating economy -- imagine where the prices would be if the economy were growing. I have no clue about oil -- I don't think it is all Iraq -- NG moves with oil as there is some switching at the margin -- but that doesn't explain NG at all and neither does just a bad season. I think at some pt it all comes back to interest rates -- keep them too low for too long and no-one can make a good decision. Some chronically overinvest in production and some chronically underinvest in production. Bad signals are given over very short periods of time and for longer term projects, too. Rig counts ought to be going up for NG, IMO, even if there is going to be a huge slowdown, but they got smacked silly a year and a half ago.