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To: robert b furman who wrote (8849)	3/1/2003 3:31:26 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95640

Weekend Market Analysis (3/1/03) amateur-investors.com The market seems to be waiting on what will eventually transpire with Iraq and until this issue is resolved peacefully or by a US led invasion it's probably going to be difficult for the major averages to sustain any type of multi-week rally. The Dow has been encountering resistance near its 20 Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) over the past few weeks after bouncing off its .786 Retracement Level near 7600 (calculated from the October 10th low to the December 2nd high). In the near term there are two possible scenario's for the Dow. If the Dow can break above its 20 Day EMA (blue line) then it could rally up to the 8200 level which is its next level of significant resistance that corresponds to its Neckline (associated with the Head and Shoulders Top pattern) and 50 Day EMA (green line). Meanwhile if the Dow begins to trend downward again look for initial support near 7600 (.786 Retracement Level). If the Dow breaks below the 7600 level then its next area of support would be its October 10th low near 7200. The Nasdaq so far has has been encountering resistance near its 50 Day EMA (green line) after finding support at its .618 Retracement Level near 1260 (calculated from the October 10th low to the December 2nd high). If the Nasdaq can break convincingly above its 50 Day EMA then the next area of significant resistance would appear to be at its 200 Day EMA (purple line) near 1425. However as I pointed out last weekend there is another potential area of resistance near 1388 (point A) which is at the .618 Retracement Level (calculated from the January high to the February low) which could come into play before the Nasdaq reaches its 200 Day EMA. Meanwhile if the Nasdaq is unable to break above its 50 Day EMA and begins to trend lower look for initial support around the 1260 level. The S&P 500 has also had a difficult time rallying above its 20 Day EMA (blue line) after bouncing off its .786 Retracement Level near 805 (calculated from the October 10th low to the December 2nd high). If the S&P 500 can rally above its 20 Day EMA then it could rise up to around the 870 level which will provide the next area of significant resistance which corresponds to its Neckline (associated with its Head and Shoulders Top pattern) and 50 Day EMA (green line). Meanwhile if the S&P 500 fails to rally above its 20 Day EMA and begins to trend lower look for initial support near the 805 level (.786 Retracement Level). If the S&P 500 breaks below the 805 area then its next area of support would be at its October 10th low near 770. Meanwhile as I talked about last weekend the chart of the Ten Year Bond (TNX) showed that it was forming a triangle pattern as the downward and upward sloping trend lines (black lines) were converging which was a signal too me that a significant move was coming. Notice this past week there was s significant move in the TNX as it broke below its upward sloping trend line an now appears to be headed back towards its early October level near 35 1/2. Thus it appears money is flowing back into Bonds which could lead to more downside pressure in the major averages. Once again if we compare the S&P 500 to the TNX they have generally been trending in the same direction over the past year. Furthermore the Put to Call Ratio dropped significantly this past week (point B) as the option players are becoming increasingly complacent. Meanwhile the Volatility Index (VIX) has remained in a range between 34 and 41 over the past month or so and hasn't reached a value yet (>=50) which has signaled a nearing bottom in the past few years (points C, D and E). Now this doesn't mean the VIX has to rise to 50 or above but I would be much more convinced of a nearing bottom if it did. Finally the Bearish-Bullish Sentiment continues to show the % difference between the Bearish and Bullish Investment Advisors narrowing. In the past when the % of Bullish Investment Advisors has become equal to or less than the % of Bearish Advisors the market has typically made a bottom followed by a significant reversal to the upside (points F, G, H, I, J and K). Based on the action in the Ten Year Bond this past week, the increasing amount of complacency as shown by the rapid drop in the Put to Call Ratio and the VIX still not showing any widespread panic yet among the investment community has me somewhat concerned that more selling pressure could eventually redevelop.

To: robert b furman who wrote (8849)	3/1/2003 3:47:06 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95640

>> Now if they will just give us this animal I'm curious whether your support for justice is universal or selective. So, I'm wondering whether you think that William S. Calley should be given to the Vietnamese ? I assume you have heard of My Lai. If not, law.umkc.edu BIO: William Calley Convicted of the My Lai slaughter of innocents, he lives a middle-class life, far from Vietnam After seven hours the jury sentenced Calley to life of hard labor. In the end, he only served less than five months, after the sentence was repeatedly reduced. Finally, he was pardoned by President Nixon. Calley is currently the manager at his father-in-law’s jewelery store.

To: robert b furman who wrote (8849)	3/1/2003 5:10:03 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95640

From Briefing.com: Stocks to Watch Next Week: So what looks good heading into the next week? In the charts below we identify several names which look interesting from a technical perspective. These are radar screen stocks -- names that appear well positioned for the near term. The information provided is intended as a starting point for those looking to do some of their own research. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G The first name on our list is OmniVision Technologies -- note the shares have edged very close to new 52-week highs. This is a $435 million market cap company that is somewhat different from most semiconductor companies. OmniVision designs its own product -- and markets it -- but skips the middle step of manufacturing by outsourcing production to Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Powerchip Semiconductor. The products it designs are single-chip image sensors that capture and convert images for digital still cameras, surveillance systems, webcams, and videophones. OmniVision is projected to earn $0.54 this year (P/E 35.2) and EPS is projected to grow 46% next year to $0.79 (P/E 24.1). Bob, thank you for listing your post as off topic. I hope that we can continue to limit the scope of the political discussion here to how it will effect our investments rather than having this thread become another wasteland. Please resist the temptation to reply to the post previous to this one on this thread. There is no way that we can be expected to be responsible for the injustices in this world. I wish that we could all get along with one another. I know we never truly will. Stay on topic whenever possible. Thank you, RtS

To: robert b furman who wrote (8849)	3/2/2003 2:16:06 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95640

OT -- Allright for Pakistan. These are the people who have been our true ally in the Afghanistan War... You are forgetting these are the same people who helped the Taliban come to power and heavily supported them to the end. The reason you are seeing more arrests in Pakistan is because that is where Taliban and Al-Qaeda feel most comfortable to hide...and while we are assigning blame, what do you think we should do to the US officials who provided material support to the Taliban between 94-96 or the CIA officials who chose to turn liberation of Afghanistan into a holy jihad of kill as many of the Russian infidels as you can and Allah will give your eternal reward?