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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Mullens who wrote (32994)	3/1/2003 10:06:08 PM
From: voop	Respond to of 196625

thanks Jim curious that there website is so quiet about their actually putting the network in play

To: Jim Mullens who wrote (32994)	3/2/2003 8:20:49 PM
From: John Biddle	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 196625

Jim, re:your list of events that could have a dramatic effect on Qualcomm. I think we should look at both sides of this idea, and have written down a list of items that could have a big negative effect should they happen. This is not in any particular order, but it might be an interesting exercize to create a grid of both the potential positive and negative events, and assign probabilities and quantifications to them. If anyone would be interested in such an exercize, send me a PM. 1 Qualcomm major patents begin to expire. One major customer finds a way around the remaining patents and publicly renounces CDMA license from Qualcomm. 2 Datang & Siemens win a lawsuit and do not have to pay Qualcomm royalties on TD-SCDMA 3 China licenses 4 carriers for 3G, but CDMA2000 is not allowed. Choices are WCDMA & TD-SCDMA 4 Demand for Qualcomm chipsets increases substantially but Qualcomm is unable to keep up. Samsung uses own chips in millions of handsets. 5 Nokia finally figures out CDMA. First, they come to market with a quality CDMA 1X phone, including data, based on their own chipset, and take marketshare from Asian manufacturers. Then they follow-up with a dual mode 1X/GSM/GPRS chip which competes favorably with Q's new similar chip. Finally they release WCDMA chps and phones that people actually want. 6 Nokia comes to market with a very cheap CDMA1x / GSM phone, based on their own chips, and takes marketshare in India and China. 7 China Unicom terminates the GSM1X trial saying they are dissatisfied with the technology 8 DoCoMo finally gets WCDMA to work well and gets good phones to market in quantity. KDDI growth all but stops. 9 A European carrier with a 3G license files for permission to change their technology to CDMA2000 instead of WCDMA. They are turned down flat. 10 Carriers cannot come to agree on a standard for MMS and it dies on the vine because customers lose interest in a feature they can only use with a subset of the market. 11 FCC agrees to delay the requirement for wireless LNP for another year. 12 FCC agrees to postpone e911 requirements because vendors convince it that the technology is not yet ready. FCC relents reluctantly, knowing that most PSAPs aren't ready anyway. 13 Sprint goes belly up.