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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (79035)3/2/2003 3:50:21 PM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
But it ain't pretty, and it ain't gonna get any prettier. N. Korea is next, and if we display the same ineptness at coalition-building in E.Asia, as in the Middle East,
we'll fail there.


It's a "180" there, Jacob. We can't buy an ally. Everybody is saying, "What do you mean we?"

And no invasion by us will happen. If we do go to war, it will be a "wipe out" of their troops at the 38th parallel, and any troops moving North will be SK only. If the NK has and uses Nukes, the choice to use them back will be tough. We might use Tac Nukes on a Dug in position, or troop concentration, but no "City Busters."

I was 28 when the "Cuban Missile Crisis" hit. I will never forget walking into a huge Gemco in Anahiem the day after Kennedy's speech and finding not one can of food on the shelves in the Market. If we bomb the reprocessing plant, there will be a speech by Bush about it as it is happening, and the country will go into a state of panic.

No, the plan here is liberate Iraq and then lean on the rest of the ME players. If we do take out the reprocessing plant in NK--which I doubt---we might do the same in Iran if we cannot get them to shut the plant down. If we did not do it, the Israelis might.

How far and how fast will we push Syria? Depends on how much help and encouragement they give Hizbollah. But the harboring of Terrorists by them has to cease.

SA/Yemen, and Egypt breed recruits for Al Qaeda, and Pakistan is where they have been hanging out. Does the Pak Gov harbor them? Hard to say. They may not turn over Al Q Paks, but they obviously will turn over the rest. Egypt has a long history of going after the Muslim Brotherhood, which is basically Al Q, but the price we pay for this is a oppressive Dictatorship in Egypt.

Will we go after a "Regime Change" in Egypt? No. But a successful Government in Iraq would breed one among the Egyptian middle class, who really want to run things. Would an open election in Egypt bring their Mullahs to power, "Al la Iran?" The Military would never allow it, after seeing the results in Iran.