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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Biddle who wrote (33019)	3/2/2003 9:32:48 PM
From: pyslent	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 198323

John, It's definitely a good idea to be on the lookout for early warning signs that the story has changed for the worse with any given investment. I agree with most of the potential negative events on your list, with the exception of 8 DoCoMo finally gets WCDMA to work well and gets good phones to market in quantity. KDDI growth all but stops. IMO, getting WCDMA to work and demonstrating market demand for its potential capabilities are the absolute best things that could happen for QCOM and its investors, bar none. The sooner that happens, the earlier the 15% market share grows to 100%. Had wCDMA been succesful from the onset of Docomo's launch, EDGE would have never seen the light of day. As it is, there is quite a lot of uncertainty in the future of the ever growing number of GSM operators. It's hardly a safe bet that they will all end up migrating to some form of CDMA2000. 11 FCC agrees to delay the requirement for wireless LNP for another year Not sure if LNP will be a net positive or a net negative for QCOM. Remember, GSM is the fastest growing technology in the americas. LNP may only increase overall churn but follow the same pattern. Anyway, I'll try to think of more additions to the lists (both positive and negative).

To: John Biddle who wrote (33019)	3/2/2003 11:10:34 PM
From: Jim Mullens	Respond to of 198323

Hi John, Good idea, your list of potential negative events that could impact Qualcomm. The one potential negative foremost in my mind is EDGE “seeing the light of day” and Qualcomm not having royalty free cross-licence agreements for such. I’m not sure if they do, or if they don’t, or if EDGE might be considered an extension of GSM and is therefore covered in Qualcomm license agreements. It somewhat appeared that the articles coming out of Cannes suggested that EDGE was being considered for rural areas, similar to what Qualcomm is proposing for GSM1x. Qualcomm appears to have all the bases covered in my mind, excepting an EDGE solution if one is really needed. Dr. I J doesn’t appear concerned, so this does a lot to relieve my concern. A second, not on your list, would be Texas Instruments and/ or Intel coming up with a dual mode chipset comparable to what Qualcomm is rolling out (MSM6300, 6200, etc) and eating into what appears to be a considerable time to market advantage for Qualcomm. jim

To: John Biddle who wrote (33019)	3/3/2003 1:31:42 PM
From: engineer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 198323

OH, that was worth a good laugh. thanks John. A few points on your points. 1. The entire industry has signed an agreement which states that if they use one patent, they agree to use and extend p[ayment on all patents. Only holdout is NOK. TI signed it. they sell to NOK. INTC can't make CDMa chips until they do. 2. Maybe, but no likely. 3. China will not do this EVER. They are on a path to take back domestic market from teh GSM group based on very favorable royatly rates and major assistance from CDMA group. They may adopt a second standard and deploy it IF they get an even more favorable deal from the Siemens group. 4. Not likely. Qualcomm has more than 4 sources for chips and has th ability to bring up another within 6 months. Order lead times from major customers like Samsung are forecast for 120 days or more on a continuos basis. Unless someone specifically goes out and books the entire fab for the entire world (like when the tamaguchi craze was around...) it is not even going to come close to consideration. 5. If they have been at this since 1992, what makes you think they will actually get it right by 2012? 11 years to make a chip that took me 18 months? Yea, right. And Larry Paulson will suddenly win the nobel prize for science. As for WCDMA, they can't seem to finish the standard to know what it is they make. that whole front is a mess right now. Perhaps in another 3-4 years. But by then, the Q chipset will have been taken to 90 nM and they will have a <$10 all format chipset. 6. Repeat #5? Repeat answer. 7. and it is only a trial... 8. Not likely, sinc ethey have been talking of adopting the 3GPP2 std lately. 9. Now that would be fun. Would prove european protectionism in violation of WTO agreements. 10. That would be even more fun, since MMS is a GSM/WCDMA thing and not a CDMA thing. Bring that one on. GPRS would suffer the most. 11. too many lawsuits upcomiong on that one to delay. Powell knows it and is running ahead of it. 12. Lawsuits have already started. can't delay any loner. ETOD claims now that it can solve this, so AT&T and others would be the liable ones. 13. and Gates/buffett would buy them....