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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (8864)	3/3/2003 4:52:28 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95730

Chart Watch -- SOX : The semiconductor sector has been one of the top performing groups for more than a week with the sector index (SOX 288) up roughly 8% over just last three days. These gains along with relatively solid short term performance of the networking, and wireless sectors have contributed to the outperformance of the tech dominated Nasdaq. briefing.com A quick look at the long term chart below puts the last few months of action in perspective and reveals that the group has run to resistance slightly above the 300 level. This marks the long term trendline off the 2000-2002 highs and the 20 week ema (blue line). While the recent surge and the test of this resistance area may help explain some of the pullback after today's early surge, the weaker market tone following the economic data and the disappointing January SIA report have likely contributed. UBS termed the SIA data below-expectation despite some relatively good news from various Asian sources surrounding Chinese New Year. Also stated that with the exception of Flash and SRAM, most other categories were down month over month in significant double digits. Blended IC ASPs were not as weak as expected. The firm did say, however, that it is expecting February to show a mild sequential increase, followed by a stronger March. The next chart of the SOX index shows the action since the Oct trough. Although the February rise of 16.8% from low to high has been constructive, the sector has accomplished relatively little overall with the SOX simply pushing back to the mid-point of its multi month range. From a short term perspective will be focusing on supports for an indication that the current dip is either merely a correction of the recent bounce or a failure at a longer term resistance which would argue for a continuation of the range trade environment or a possible resumption of the negative bias. The initial level of interest is at 286/285 (20 day ema, 38% retrace of Feb run), followed by 280 (50% and late Feb low) and 275 (62% retracement). If a limited pullback scenario develops and the index is able to extend the bounce, it will face resistances at 307 and 310 in front of the 319 to 322 zone. Similar support levels for the Semi HOLDRs are at 22.54/22.48, 22.12/22 and 21.70. Send comments, questions or suggestions to -- Jim Schroeder, Briefing.com The weekly and daily charts I ran on StockCharts do not look like the over simplied charts at briefing.com. stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyyay[d19991231,20030303][pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G Thanks for the CSFB information Alastair. Much appreciated... RtS