Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frederick Langford who wrote (85067)	3/3/2003 3:05:25 PM
From: mph	Respond to of 208838

I heard that such food makes one fat, too.<g>

To: Frederick Langford who wrote (85067)	3/3/2003 3:06:11 PM
From: 2MAR$	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 208838

U.S. industry stumbles, jarring jobs outlook ( Construuction industry still winging along <G>) biz.yahoo.com By Wayne Cole NEW YORK, March 3 (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing stumbled in February after a strong start to the year, suggesting a sustained recovery in economic growth and employment remains an uncertain prospect. ADVERTISEMENT Other economic data on Monday were more mixed, with construction booming in January and personal consumption surprisingly weak, but the overall impression was of an economy firing on only a few cylinders. The Institute for Supply Management said the main index in its monthly survey of manufacturing dipped to 50.5 in February from 53.9 in January, well below market forecasts of 52.4 and only just above the 50.0 barrier that separates growth from contraction. Alarming for an already-depressed jobs outlook, the ISM's index of employment slumped to 42.8 from 47.6, its lowest reading in a year and a grim omen for the February payrolls report due this Friday. "No one is hiring; all the leading indicators of employment are weak and I would not be surprised at all to see another fall in payrolls," said Ram Bhagavatula, chief economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Financial Markets. Analysts are looking for payrolls to rise a tiny 8,000 in February after January's 143,000 bounce, but that forecast could well turn negative. The gloomy outlook took its toll on equities, dragging the Dow Jones industrial average (CBOT:^DJI - News) back to flat from an early gain of over 1.0 percent. In contrast, Treasuries took heart from the thought that the economy was far too weak for the Federal Reserve to contemplate raising U.S. interest rates -- and may yet have to cut again. Benchmark 10-year yields stood at 3.68 percent, only a whisker above five-month lows of 3.66 percent reached last week. LOWER ORDERS, HIGHER COSTS Much of the deterioration in the overall ISM survey was due to a relatively large 7-point slide in new orders to 52.3, a jarring development since orders are considered a leading indicator of production. "It was pretty much across every industry," noted Norbert J. Ore, chairman of the ISM manufacturing business survey committee, pointing to Iraq as a major factor. "The threat of war is dampening demand and that applies to every industry." He also singled out the impact of higher energy prices, which are squeezing both demand and profit margins. "Energy is functioning as a tax on growth," Ore said. Oil prices hit a decade high near $40 a barrel last week, although weekend developments in Iraq and Turkey caused prices to ease back to $36 on Monday. Baghdad's move to destroy some banned missiles and Turkey's decision to block a U.S. request to use its territory for an attack on Iraq, were seen as possibly delaying a war. FEWER CARS, MORE HOUSES Other figures had mixed implications for growth this quarter. Personal consumption fell 0.1 percent in January, versus forecasts of a 0.1 percent rise, while income rose 0.3 percent, against estimates of a 0.4 percent gain. Analysts noted real consumption, adjusted for inflation, fell a steeper 0.3 percent, largely due to a slump in demand for autos, and that suggested spending made less of a contribution to GDP in January than first thought. Indeed, the weak result caused some analysts to shave their forecasts for consumption and GDP growth this quarter. Estimates are still fluid, but most are crowded in the 2.0 percent to 3.0 percent area, compared with an annualized 1.4 percent rise in GDP in the last three months of 2002. Industry figures on February auto sales, due later on Monday, are expected to show a further dip from January's subdued levels despite a resumption of aggressive promotions by carmakers. Still, the weakness in consumption was balanced in part by another spectacular performance from the home building industry, where residential spending jumped 2.5 percent to a record high in January, courtesy of ultra-low mortgage rates. That compensated for a still-depressed office and industrial sector and lifted overall construction spending by 1.7 percent, far above economists' forecasts for a second month in a row.