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To: 4figureau who wrote (3560)3/4/2003 9:20:34 AM
From: 4figureau  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5423
 
UBS Warburg:

Gold continues to lag other measures of risk aversion such as a strong euro, firm oil prices and soft equity markets. With the euro just short of the years’ highs of 1.0935, a break of this level could trigger further rapid US dollar weakening and thus a sympathetic move higher in gold.

Gold: COTR: Output of gold in Australia, the world's third largest producer, is forecast to total 274 tonnes in 2002/03, government forecaster Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said on Tuesday. The forecast is broadly in line with private
estimates and up by 10 tonnes on ABARE's tally in 2001/02 (Reuters).

Trading: In New York gold came under pressure as one European bank, a noted seller over the previous couple of days, offered good quantities of gold. This pushed gold to a low of $345/oz where some physical demand was seen. Once US equities started to weaken gold began to edge higher and ended the session firm after on US bank lifted gold into the close. In Asia, gold traded higher as the dollar weakened sharply and the metal firmed on Japanese buying. Selling above $351 capped the move in gold but further
decent buying in early European trading saw gold move to a high of around $352.50.

View: Decent price action over the past 12 hours and prospects for further dollar weakening may attract some more speculative money into gold, although we continue to believe that gold is under-performing its potential, perhaps due to some determined selling.

Silver: Trading: Silver opened in New York with some commission house selling in evidence but this was taken easily by the market which remained steady for some time. US professional names then showed their buying interest and silver went quickly higher with no real offers around. Silver then stalled for a couple of hours before ending firm on further US professional buying. In Asia silver saw
decent two-way flows (for a change) and ended firm.

View: The rally in silver appears to have been stopped in its tracks by the pullback in gold. Beyond these short term moves, silver should further benefit from the weaker US dollar (as will all dollar-denominated commodities), but since silver’s applications are largely industrial in nature the metal will continue to be hit by slowing economic activity.

thebulliondesk.com