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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (19604)	3/4/2003 9:31:37 AM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206323

Claude, every market is elastic - even natural gas. Reference all of Que's discussions about fuel switching, aluminum and fertilizer plant shutdowns, etc. Also, you've got to figure joe 6pack will cut back home heating after getting smacked with some 100% year over year rises. This is the premier cyclical market, when things are bleakest buy, when they look the best sell. We can't discount the possibility energy companies have seen their high for this move, and will dump as we go into shoulder season. The main theme for now is we averted a crisis this winter. Next winter is off the radar screen for now, and may get overtaken by events if the market tanks before or during this summer. Sharp

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (19604)	3/4/2003 9:35:00 AM
From: Gofer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206323

Hi Claude, from oilpatchupdates.com Boe - barrel(s) of oil equivalent. Natural gas is converted to barrels at a ratio of 6:1 or 6,000 cubic feet (6 mcf) to 1 barrel of oil - the approximate energy content of the two units. Comment The conversion allows for easier comparison among producers with a mix of products. Some producers with predominantly natural gas production, convert their oil and liquids production to mcfe (thousands of cubic feet equivalent) using the same 1 barrel = 6 mcfe ratio. Until recently, most Canadian producers used a 10:1 conversion ratio, which was more in line with the relative pricing of the two commodities. Some still use this ratio or both in their reporting. In Oil-Stats and in the Profile Page financials we have converted all historical and current data to the 6:1 ratio to facilitate easier comparisons. Boe/d - barrels of oil equivalent per day; a common measure to compare companies' production.

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (19604)	3/4/2003 6:58:58 PM
From: Ed Ajootian	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206323

Claude, A neat little conversion web page for common O&G units is at santos.com As someone who has invested in E&P stocks for plenty of years when the average price was < $3, its nice to hear $3 in the same sentence as "collapse". The only way gas goes under $3 again is if all the energy execs at the majors and large independents do just the opposite of what their mantra has been for the last 6 months, and just open up the pursestrings and start drilling the marginal stuff again. I suppose there is still a very remote chance this could occur but if it did we would start to see a big ramp up in the rig counts in the next 4-6 weeks. This is because it usually takes about a month or so to get a rig spudded once you have decided to drill the well. Natgas prices went really nutty a coupla weeks ago so if the E&P industry was gonna lose all this new-found discipline and start drilling stupid wells because of natgas prices going nutty it would start to show up in the coming weeks. Give me some parameters of the size & shape of your favorite kind of company and I (we) can help you more in your natgas quest. E.G., range of market cap, institutional coverage or under the radar screen, pure commodity price play or exploration upside, "acquire & exploit" strategy vs. growth by the drill bit, etc. If you are looking for a "pure" commodity price play that is under the radar screen you may want to look at KCS Energy (KCS). They produce 80% natgas (vs. 20% oil) and are extremely leveraged, yet should still have an interest coverage ratio of >3:1 with $4 gas. I've mentioned them here before but haven't done a writeup because I was waiting to do it around now, a few weeks before they announce 4Q, but the stock has run up and I'm waiting for it to slip back down a notch or two first. If you want to stick with the bigger companies with heavy institutional interest you oughtta look at Comstock Resources (CRK). Also extremely high leverage to natgas prices.