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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (13879)	3/4/2003 11:13:47 AM
From: Clappy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

GoldenShower, Good article on the Kondratieff Winter. However he seems dead set on Gold rising but makes no mention of other commodities. Not even Silver. Why do you think that is so? Does it make you nervous about your position in leveraged silver or is he missing the picture? I'd think all commodities would rise. I understand the flight into gold. Why not silver? He also mentioned something similar to what Warren Buffett was saying in Fortune Mag. For many US banks the debt mountain is not the only issue that must be addressed in winter; huge derivative positions are also likely to add to banking woes. Americans, mindful of the ravages of winter, are increasingly turning to the security of gold. Buffett is calling derivatives weapons of mass destruction. How long before the market begins to reflect this idea? -KondratieffsMuckluck

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (13879)	3/4/2003 11:51:45 AM
From: crdesign	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

"All that glitters is not Gold" A humorous perspective: Some priests decided to go to Hawaii on vacation. They were determined to make this a real vacation by not wearing anything that would identify them as clergy. As soon as the plane landed, they headed for a store and bought some really outrageous shorts, shirts, sandals, sunglasses, etc. The next morning they went to the beach dressed in their 'tourist' garb. They were sitting on beach chairs, enjoying a drink, the sunshine and the scenery when a 'drop dead gorgeous' blonde in a tiny bikini came walking straight towards them. They couldn't help but stare. As the blonde passed them, she smiled and said, "Good morning, Father, and "Good morning, Fathers," nodding and addressing each of them individually, then passed on by. They were all stunned. How in the world did she know they were priests? The next day, they went back to the store, bought even more outrageous outfits. These were so loud, you could hear them before you even saw them. Once again, they settled on the beach in their chairs to enjoy the sunshine. After a while, the same gorgeous blonde - wearing a string bikini this time came walking toward them. Again she approached them and greeted them individually: "Good morning, Father," and "Good morning, Fathers," and started to walk away. One of the priests couldn't stand it and said, "Just a minute, young lady." "Yes," she replied. "We are priests, and proud of it, but I have to know: how in the world did you know we are priests?" "Father" she said, "It's me, Sister Helen"

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (13879)	3/4/2003 1:19:00 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Kondratieff Winter Other than reading a few articles in passing, I know little of Kondratieff's theory. I have spent more than a little time on what I refer to as the generational market cycle. This cycle takes about 35 to 36 years. Moreover, each generation has a tendency to "not make the mistakes of their parents". This results in, economically, a generation being more like their grandparents. Thus, we end with a two cycle period of around 71-72 years. This would make the current downturn more similar to the '30s than the '70s. Countervailing this, is the behavior of the Fed. In the '30s, especially at the beginning, the Fed was stingy. Exactly the opposite occurred in the '70s. We had deflation in the '30s, and sever inflation in the '70s. As I stated some months ago, I believe the Fed has decided they liked the '70s better. Hence with the printing presses running, one should anticipate all that that implies – inflation, lower dollar and higher gold. However, no matter how hard the Fed tries, history does not repeat, only rhymes. While we may get an “oil shock” comparable to ’74 or ’78, “this time around, we may not. Also, The mania was much more sever in ’00, than in ’66 (alternating generations), so there is more to “work off”. One last difference this time is the degree of globalization. Globalization seems to be an exacerbating effect. It helps during the up cycle, but can be injurious during the down cycle. In any event, with P/Es still sky high, and the Boomers not yet at the retiring age, this secular bear period has only begun. JMO lurqer