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To: Perspective who wrote (225206)	3/4/2003 11:16:40 AM
From: reaper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

yes, your math is right. which is precisely why i've exited over half of my treasuries and will be gone from the rest even before we get to TNX 2.xxx. i'm not trying to make a case for treasuries here. nor am i trying to make a case for the dollar, or against gold. and certainly not for stocks. returns on paper are gonna suck going forward; we all clearly agree on this. the case i am trying to make is that i am somewhat ambivalent about the returns on "stuff" (to paraphrase Faber) going forward as well. i just don't see this massive "stuff" inflation. maybe i'm kidding myself. but as you said in a prior post, there has to be a change in the pricing mechanism to re-allocate goods from dumb-f over-consuming over-leveraged Americans to the rest of the world. the primary change in the pricing mechanism is a lower dollar, but at the same time that is going to crater US demand. with cratered US demand, a world economy that depends on US import demand for over 50% of its growth is gonna be in deep sh8t, and again i don't see what of value the developing world has to 'trade' to make up for the decline in US demand to maintain any kind of a price level. therefore i frankly don't see oil and alluminum as worldwide expensive commodities w/ the US in a credit-bust near-depression (which is i think what you see coming). we're all searching around for the inflating asset in the credit bust. maybe there will be none. the bear market eats the bears too <g> Cheers