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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (29445)	3/4/2003 1:58:47 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Minor problem with this, as Jim Grant points out, is that you can't compund forever - there's always some market crash /inflation / invasion / plague or something that limits how long you can compound. Just taking the past two years or years - If you held U.S. 'Contiental' (early U.S. currency, 1770) they went to almost zero. Germany currency in Wiemar -hoped you saved the wheelbarrow. Argentina has blown up their currency 4 times in the past 100 years. U.S. dollar had significant infaltion in the 1970s *********** Until about 1500, most estimates of economic growth rates in the West are about 1% per year, mostly less. After 1500, with printing, horse collar, motar board plow, spread of water mills and wind mills, and later improved ships, growth gets up to 1-1.5 % per year. Might be difficult to get a real 2% return over a number of years in this environment. After the 1800, steam engine, crop rotation, and start of railroads, etc. there was much more economic growth, and getting 2 % or better would be easier.

To: Ilaine who wrote (29445)	3/4/2003 4:21:08 PM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

CB "The length and severity of depressions depend partly on the magnitude of the 'real' maladjustments, which developed during the preceding boom and partly on the aggravating monetary and credit conditions." - Gotfried Haberler, Prosperity and Depression, 1937 from Pru bear site sounds like Buffett today

To: Ilaine who wrote (29445)	3/5/2003 2:32:35 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Respond to of 74559

Hi CB, I had a lot of gold stocks and bullion proxy in December. A lot more than I had just a few months before. It sort of expanded. I traded the lion's share of it in for (no not a new suit ;o) lots of natural gas stocks, which have in turn expanded. I'm buying more gold now, maybe I'm finally on to something :o) Marcus brother may have moved his gold around too like Marcus did with his money. He probably leased it out for 2% per annum to some gold mining company that wanted to hedge production by selling gold short and invest in interest bearing Roman Talent Bonds. Then in the end Marcus ' brother had $55,515,156,466,130,000,000. Furthermore he asked for his gold back and promptly bought a new suit also. Mom Smothers always liked Marcus' brother best. Now that's leverage... Regards Kastel CCC and mp3 junkie members.rogers.com. members.rogers.com. members.rogers.com. members.rogers.com. members.rogers.com. members.rogers.com.

To: Ilaine who wrote (29445)	3/5/2003 3:28:31 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Respond to of 74559

Hi CobaltBlue, Let's take Marcus here, who spent his 2,000 years moving his money around from one investment to another, but always measured in some currency. He started with the same amount you did, but he managed to average a 2% rate of return over the period. You have enough for new suit. Marcus has $55,515,156,466,130,000,000. I've heard of this guy Marcus before. Some time ago now, he and a friend of his (Neiman, I think), started a department store. His suits are too far out of my price range though... KJC (he signed, with tongue planted very firmly in cheek)