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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: aladin who wrote (79545)	3/4/2003 4:07:11 PM
From: Win Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

The most unlikely thing about this story ( times.hankooki.com is the direct link from google) is the implication that there's something new here. It's not like the North Korean tests were a secret, and the idea that they weren't fully tracked and analyzed by the US is farfetched. Some relatively recent background: On 31 August 1998, North Korea test fired a multi-stage rocket. The prototype rocket was launched from the Hwadaegun Missile Test Facility. US intelligence agencies tracked the rocket's flight path over the Pacific. The first stage of the rocket fell into international waters roughly 300km east of the launch site. The rocket flew over the main Japanese island of Honshu and the second stage fell roughly 330km away from the Japanese port city of Hachinohe after flying for approximately 1,320km. Initial media reports described the test as that of a two- stage intermediate-range Taepodong-1 ballistic missile. However, on 4 September 1998, the Korean Central News Agency clarified that North Korea had not tested a ballistic missile. Instead, it had launched a satellite into orbit via a multi-stage rocket. Later, the United States confirmed that North Korea had tried and failed to place a satellite in orbit. Apparently, the satellite broke into pieces seconds before reaching orbit. What was initially thought to be a two-stage Taepodong-1 missile with a range of 1,600km, is now believed to have had a solid fuel third stage with a potential range between 3,800km to 5,900km. cns.miis.edu If it's convenient to some marketing angle or other, the "US document" will surface soon enough. Me , I just worry that the Taepodong-1 will be followed by the Long Dong. Hope it's not silver. netfunny.com google.com Edit: more seriously, unwinding my google search windows, I stumbled on this, allegedly from the not notoriously pacifist stratfor: But the North finds itself stalled in making any significant breakthroughs. The program is chiefly hampered, not by US pressure, but by the unwillingness of the Chinese and Russian governments to significantly advance Pyongyang's knowledge. Both Beijing and Moscow are withholding valuable technology. Contrary to Central Intelligence Agency projections, the North is not gaining significant Chinese or Russian technology. Even if the regime chose to launch a long-range missile today, it would have great difficulty in doing so because the entire inventory of long-range missiles in North Korea appears to be composed of as few as one or two weapons. The true state of the program appears starkly primitive and incapable of a significant breakthrough as long as China and Russia refuse to provide significant assistance. Another test launch is unlikely. And while the North won't abandon the program, the American fear of a surprise strike - with little or no warning - is unfounded at the present time. atimes.com

To: aladin who wrote (79545)	3/4/2003 6:55:20 PM
From: Condor	Respond to of 281500

I am not validating the story, but no one said the NK's hit Alaska on purpose (well maybe someone implied that) - the original article discussed debris being found there. I was more focused on the fact that spin was about to be promoted and that is what I wasn't buying into. I'm even skeptical that in fact the shell casing is North Korean or indeed, is it even a missile component. The way the story died, I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be a piece of mining ventilation pipe or something equally absurd. In any event, it's a non issue I agree. C