Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: abuelita who wrote (13916)	3/4/2003 4:05:22 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

China can be viewed as the focal point right now for MUCH as the USFed prints money, it largely goes in almost equal amounts directly into the Chinese Central Bank because all efforts are directed within US Policy Making decisions to keep consumption going we mistakenly believe the USEconomy will survive only if we maintain consumption demand this erroneous policy will have horrendous consequences but in the meantime, it suits China just fine it seems all priorities by US leaders are directed toward building the Chinese economy about 20-30% of that newly printed Fed money is used to buy gold Chinese CB is building its gold reserves so the USFed is monetizing the gold bull market many have wondered how the USFed will produce inflation or gold demand this is a direct connection China is accumulating about $100-120 billion in surplus per year, just from the United States trade they have trade surpluses with other countries also in a few years, their surplus will exceed mighty Japan's over time, great strain will develop between US and China since US firms will have pricing power impotence (cannot raise prices), US politicians will eventually implore and pressure China to revalue their currency upward the strain will extend to copyright protection and enforcement the greatest violator is the Chinese Army Corporation e.g. software, music, movies I think we should appoint MSFT Bill Gates to be Chief Trade Arbitrator China will revalue upward their yuan in late 2004 or 2005 but not without political concessions (watch Taiwan, now that HongKong has been absorbed) when China allows the yuan to rise in value, OUCH !!! the USA will see a quick 5-6% quantum jump in price inflation all Asian exporters will allow their currencies to rise versus US$ all US imports will see a price rise, finished products and components we import one helluvalot of Asian stuff !!! at that point, bigtime damage to USTreasurys bigtime damage to Mortgage-Backed securities the very same instruments that the Great GreenFlator urged investors to purchase he directed traffic from one bubble to the next vast consequences to US mortgage demand, US real estate prices, supported consumption from home equity draws, and general economic recession (or just stagnation) we will see inflationary recession or inflationary stagnation no other alternatives but US consumption will continue to some extent creditors may dry up, but America is founded on debt I keep hearing on the radio "got bad credit, even a bankruptcy? no problem come see us about a car loan or furniture sales" where these creton financiers find fresh money to lose is beyond me that is all we know -- spend, borrow, consume, high life a ridiculous characteristic of the MeMe GoGo generation which brought drug addiction and other addictions to new heights the trade gap versus China will never go away China will undercut Asia for another 20 years !!! China will eventually deliver the death blow to Japan, after a millenium of war, resentment, hatred Japan and China despise each other, and now pretend nice nice China will attract foreign capital next at the direct expense of the US markets the biggest stock market rallies will be in Chinese stocks since yuan currency will rise, business will boom and let's not forget the burgeoning Chinese banks they have invested in gold, a rising hard asset reserve so their banks will have tremendous capital to grow an economy they will discover the wonders of Fractional Bank systems the whole world will clamor to participate in Chinese contracts they will use this wealth to establish a world class Navy their presence will be seen in all seven seas the explosion of Chinese prosperity will develop their middle class they will continue to attract foreign capital for years to come we will see Chinese wealthy guys buying up some US property I will be investing in Chinese stocks in phase #2 that phase will begin in 2005, most likely I expect the Yuan to rise 300-500% versus the USDollar watch China anyone with half a brain will catch onto this new phenomenon they wont import a great deal from US firms many numbnut American analysts will expect they will why on earth would they use American labor at 100x the cost ??? of course, they will purchase tech equipment, cell towers they will use our technology experts but they will purchase their own domestically produced output check the billion$ each quarter invested by US and Japanese firms inside China their output capex is soon to be monstrous, each year getting larger this whole decade will be about China they will have their problems, some bankruptcies, some rapid growth retractions, much social strain, like migration from rural areas to urban centers but they will take the world by storm they will also dictate the pace of US slowmotion destruction by simply bargaining for the yuan revaluation pace each concession will come with a political price tag already Japan is urging the Chinese to adjust their currency Germany and the USA will join that chorus because Japan is getting killed by a 1000 cuts and the US mfrs will be soon feeling the Chinese effect e.g. impossible to raise prices, even though production costs are rising OUCH OUCH OUCH, profit margins will disappear for US firms gonna be wild gonna be harshly political China each year will be a bigger consumer of energy, and most every commodity of importance just when they are getting more scarce, and most costly by 2005 our chief US export to China will be condoms gonna be hard to balance our trade gap on reservoir-tipped rubbers !!! but with the ribbed versions, we have a chance indeed many years from now, China will have a role in Middle East affairs THEY CRAVE WORLD POWER STATUS, WITH ALL ITS GRAVY AND ALL THE ATTENDANT PRESTIGE in time, no major world decision will be made without consulting the Chinese leaders when that day comes, extreme risk will come to the Middle East since China will need MidEast oil / jim