Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (29043)	3/4/2003 5:00:15 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 36161

you get a "D+" for this lame comment, maybe a "C-" let's make it bold for all to see *"On the USD - they do not see the incredible downside support that exits in having China's currency pegged to the USD and having both China & Japan's export economies tied to a "stable" USD."* Chinese renminbi pegging gaurantees a hemorrhage in trade gaps versus China that will continue unabated as the dollar drops further, no effect on China-US trade gap since no change in pricing differentials no internal FOREX mechanisms to rectify the imbalance so all USGovt efforts to accelerate the money supply will just fill the Chinese Central Bank e.g. $110 billion per year just versus USA since our emphasis is solely on supporting mindless consumption this is a hemorrhage right under your nose in whose best interest is this gaping surplus ??? China will eventually revalue the yuan upward when they do, all hell will break loose the US will suddenly experience a sharp import inflation problem long rates will rise, mortgage rates will rise maybe you dont think this matters either ??? how about reversal of all the Corp Rate Swaps ??? do you even know what they are ??? the effect on the US Economy will be years of stagnation it wont be good for the world economy, since we are the main engine, but that doesnt mean it wont happen geez, how naive !!! by your definition, nothing bad will happen to the US Economy or the US Dollar, since it would have harmful effects on the world geez, how naive !!! did you even study macro-economics ??? and all Asian exporters will climb in under the higher Chinese currency versus the USDollar this will bring sharp imported inflation to US shores thus reversing the 1990 decade-long virtuous cycle man oh man, when you are wrong you are arrogant loud wrong maybe you are smarter than OHiggins, Russell, Rogers, and Buffet I DOUBT IT back on IGNORE, not worth reading your pompous garbage just because it is not in the world's best interest to see the dollar decline further, doesnt mean it wont decline further the same asinine argument was heard in summer 2002 or dont you recall ??? as in, the euro wont rise from 95-96 cents, because it is not in Europe's best interest for it to rise what is it now? 108.8 geez, how naive !!! you live in a fairy tale land I look forward to gold rising again, just to put a sock in your mouth find me a single precedent of a major currency whose economy has a 5-6% GDP trade gap, which has not seen a 25% currency decline from here at 99, not the top of 121 25% from here USDollar fundamentals have worsened since summer2002 have you noticed ??? if the US$ fundys dont improve, several more declining steps are coming why havent US$ fundys improved by now, since summer 2002? if you dont know why, then you dont understand this currency !!! find me one example, just one, Mr SliderDownDollar we have a freefall in progress just like JohnJ Murphy has said maybe you are smarter than him? nah / jim

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (29043)	3/4/2003 5:05:04 PM
From: Threshold	Respond to of 36161

<<On the Geopolitical stormfront... we are having victory, after victory in the War on Terrorism...Saddam is going to be removed from Power and Al Quaeda continues to be hunted down like the rabid, hairless, running dogs they are.>> Underestimating the enemy is careless and often fatal. <<The Finance/Debt Orgy is being addressed by prudent credit tightening...and consumers are starting to save and paydown debt... a soft landing vs. a crash landing is beginning to develop....there is no Real Estate Bubble in Housing on Main St USA... speculative sub-market niches are cyclical and irrelevant to the broad housing market & economy. Stock Market looks poised to perhaps bottom out at DOW 6750ish...while not the 5,000's that many anticipated; certainly a reasonable deflation from bubble territory. Optimism will replace Pessimism sooner than most think...and I for one...will be very happy to step out of the Bear Cave into the bright sunlight of Peace & Prosperity that America is bringing to the world, by once again, leading the World in Fighting Evil.>> Your call of an IT top in gold was great, but it seems that your research from that point on has been centered on CNBC and CNN. You are not Larry Kudlow are you?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (29043)	3/4/2003 5:56:33 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Respond to of 36161

Slider, in my view, a military victory would be followed only by years of occupation and/or deployment of forces in the Middle East, making the anticipatd short term distortion of a war more serious than many analysts are willing to admit. If you take the short term view for military success, then it follows that there might be a decline in oil prices and a decline in gold prices. But a long term commitment would certainly drain U.S. financial resources, lower the value of the dollar, increase inflation, and inevitably lead to higher gold prices. I think it is risky to assume a short term solution to Iraq. Art

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (29043)	3/4/2003 7:17:21 PM
From: Ken Reidy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

USD falls to new multi-year low tonight. Falling fast. With this in mind, what is wrong with the strategy of going long HUI type stocks at this level? Investing is about risk/reward. Strong HUI support lies just below and provides an obvious stop loss. Reward to the upside could be substantial if the SM and Dollar continue to weaken and Gold goes back up to test the $388 high. Seems riskier to be out of Gold stocks here than to be in them.