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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (29053)	3/4/2003 6:28:44 PM
From: philv	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

As long as interest rates stay down, debt can be handled....perhaps. You know the inevitable outcome in rising interest rates. Some folks believe a huge upside after the Iraqi war. Where then will interest rates go? The other problem, how high can debt be piled? If the war outcome is negative, expect even more debt. Once a person has taken on a huge debt (like mortgage), how much more can he bare? Where will the good jobs come from? Debt is already a problem with bankruptcies costing the economy hundreds of billions per year. Greenspan sees no problem with mortgage debt. Could it be because most of the dollars he created has gone into this sector? It almost seems to me "they" won't be happy until everyone is buried in debt. And even if you sacrifice and stay debt free, your share of your government's debt keeps growing and growing. Hopefully the day of reckoning never comes, because if it does, they will look to you to help bail them out. Phil Phil

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (29053)	3/4/2003 8:26:07 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 36161

so many complex factors make it harder, but not impossible certain factors are more important at different times many past events are poor learning examples, since different envmt now many incorrect expectations on economic responses so many errors by key people in high places many outright wrong conclusions involving expected foreign responses many arrogant pronouncements about our superior economy (when we are the most outrageous debtor on the planet) but it is not impossible to make sense it is just extremely difficult I think it is of paramount importance to know what factors dominate e.g. low rates are not a dominant factor now e.g. rising production costs are critically dangerous now many people prefer to make simple conclusions they use improper past examples from dissimilar times they overlook critically important factors like the SuperCycle debt stress test (which is what SliderDownTubes chooses to do, at his peril) one of my favorite events upcoming is the humbling of those who ignore the SuperCycle, and get embarrassed or broken thanks for keeping in touch respectfully / jim