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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (28861)	3/4/2003 7:37:46 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Justa, I'll try to look at it later tonight. The NDX might have been oscillating at a different relation to the COMP during that time period because of the Netscape IPO in 1996 and AOL. I'm not sure.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (28861)	3/4/2003 11:20:14 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Justa, looking back at the old re-trace, the COMP 700 bottom coincided with an NDX level of 380 at the same date. I always thought that was a bit extreme, so I didn't follow it. I was always targeting the 480-525 range for a good level of support for the NDX, with 525 my preferred level. The portion of the chart you've shown coincides with the current ratio we're seeing on the NDX:COMP. For example, the NDX dropped only 74 points below the July low for the Oct. low while the COMP dropped 84 points. The inference is the NDX is dropping only 88% of the COMP points. This is a bit different than the past couple of years, when they nearly dropped point for point. The NDX actually dropped 5% more points than the COMP from 9-2001 to 7-2002. Jeff may have a different take on this, but my take is that maybe we need to watch the NDX right now. If that chart appears to be operative, and it does line up with what I'm looking for in the next 3-weeks, I think we need to study it and see if there are any ratios in play, possibly lining it up with the Tommy Bear cycle or with the annual fib cycle that shows 2003 as a possible bear market low year.