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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (79614)	3/5/2003 2:33:33 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

We have enough to conquer Baghdad, but as far as keeping Iraq under military control in the face of a hostile civilian population, we are woefully undermanned Carl, this is why you have been so woefully wrong for the last year on this Administrations capabilities and intentions. You keep working with "False Premises." We are not facing a "hostile civilian population." This is the invention of fearful minds. Sure we will have hostile individuals, but it's "Dancing Iraqis in the street with flowers," the same way it was in Iraq. So you can "Force ratio" yourself forever, and it means nothing when you have the wrong assumptions.

To: Bilow who wrote (79614)	3/5/2003 2:58:31 AM
From: Bill Ulrich	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

The Malay and Northern Ireland examples of 20:1000 force ratio were extraordinarily determined antagonistic insurgencies. Are Baghdad's citizens that fond of the current regime? The occupation force in Japan at the very end of WWII was around 450,000 but dropped sharply to 200,000 within six months. Throughout the 6.5 year occupation, the troop count averaged slightly over 100,000. That for a population between 75-80 million in that time period. I don't see a 20:1000 force ratio applying to Iraq. Quinlivan may not either. <g> "Iraq has a population of 24 million. Using the 20 per 1000 ratio that Britain used in bringing Northern Ireland under control, the US will need an occupation force of 480,000."