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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BWAC who wrote (8896)	3/5/2003 12:11:02 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95640

From Briefing.com: 10:49AM Rambus follow-up (RMBS) 13.00 -2.43: Bloomberg.com reports that an FTC official has ruled that co is entitled to an administrative trial challenging U.S. antitrust claims over the company's patents. Weakness in the stock appears due to judge's decision to limit the defenses that Rambus can offer because of its failure to keep documents about its attendance at industry standard-setting meetings. The FTC contends that Rambus destroyed the documents to hide its efforts to obtain patents on what became the industry chip standard. The judge denied a request by FTC staff lawyers to skip the trial and move directly to the punishment phase of the case. 10:32AM Rambus plunges on FTC news 14.65 -0.78: 10:25AM S&P 500 edges off early low/support : -- Technical -- The S&P 500 tested a swing target in the 819 area off the open but held above the Feb 25 low at 818.54 before pushing modestly higher. The index has slumped as much as 3.9% (high to low) off this week's early high and this has created a very short term overextended condition. Posture above 822 and the early low 819.93 during the current pullback off the high leaves the door open for follow through upticks. Initial resistances are at 826/827 and 830/831. 10:10AM ISM Services close to consensus : The February ISM services index came in at 53.9%, vs the January reading of 54.5% and the consensus of 53.5%. While this is the lowest reading since October (53.9%) with the market averages slightly lower after the report, the close proximity to consensus suggests reaction will remain minor and short lived. 10:07AM Genesis Microchip upped to Outperform at RBC; target goes to $18 from $16 (GNSS) 12.99 +0.35: -- Update -- The upgrade from Underperform follows co's positive earnings guidance. RBC sees early signs that an industry shakeout is underway, and believes the long-term Genesis growth story is improving significantly. The 1$18 target is based on a forward multiple of 25x calendar yr 2004 est of $0.72 (up from firm's previous est of $0.65). 8:28AM Genesis Microchip: Piper sees downside to $8-$10 (GNSS) 12.64: Although the co raised their March qtr rev guidance to $54 mln from $52 mln, USB Piper Jaffray recommends that investors lighten up on their positions by selling into the near-term strength; firm notes that the stock trades at a 25% premium over the mkt multiple, and believes GNSS shares have downside to $8-$10 as ASP declines accelerate due to intense competition in 2H03. 9:26AM Maxim Integrated gives positive bookings guidance (MXIM) 32.43: Morgan Stanley says that MXIM's CEO indicated at yesterday's conference that bookings quarter-to-date have increased 17% vs firm's expectations for about 10% bookings growth in the qtr. 10:43AM ATI Technologies (ATYT): Far From Over ATI Technologies, a 3D graphics solutions company based in Canada, was the subject of a coverage initiation this morning at Pacific Growth Equities with an overweight rating. While the Company continues to hover around its 52-week lows, it is important to understand how it got there and whether or not it can revert back to the double digits again. ATYT competes in the 3D graphics chip markets with NVIDIA being its only real formidable competitor. The Company's products can be found in PC's, notebooks, game consoles, integrated chipsets and information appliances. Prior to June of last year, Wall Street knew these two companies differently and therefore priced them accordingly. NVIDIA had a lion's share of the highly coveted PC graphics market with ATI known as the leading mobile graphics company. However, ATI went after the PC graphics market with a vengeance and usurped NVIDIA's dominance by leapfrogging NVIDIA with its introduction of the Radeon 9700 Pro a whole seven months before NVIDIA's delayed launch of its NV30. Given this crowning achievement and the myriad of products ATI offers, why would this company trade at such a low price and valuation? The answer to that question is probably simpler than one would think. Pacific Growth Equities note points out that ATI's Chairman and CEO K.Y. Ho has been the subject of a securities investigation by the Ontario Securities Commission. Let's add to that the current state of the PC market and questionable macroeconomic environment and we get to see a possible diamond in the rough in ATYT's stock. The company recently had a favorable news announcement in which it will be working with Nintendo on technology development for its products. ATI has had a relationship for quite some time with Nintendo paying the company royalties as much as $14 million last quarter. It is important to note that Microsoft's Xbox utilizes NVDA's chip solutions for its graphics. The key to the graphics game is staying ahead of your competitors and not being a one product company. ATYT has demonstrated that it has the ability to penetrate market share from NVDA and diversify its product mix to include both established and emerging markets. While there are some negative clouds hanging over the stock, its continuous stream of news announcements and product accolades illustrates that it is not going away anytime soon. Pacific Growth Equities initiated with an overweight rating highlighting its discounted P/E of 18.6x CY:03 in comparison to its peer competitors average P/E of 34.9x CY:03 in the graphics space. -- John Meza, Briefing.com 10:22AM Technical Levels: When we reviewed the Nasdaq yesterday, we were flat neutral on the near-term outlook. The index had topped out exactly on its 50-day simple moving average, and the subsequent reversal was on the ugly side. Yet at the same time, the Nasdaq also observed straight-line support at 1320, and total volume traded came in relatively light. Now it's worth reiterating those Monday levels were very closely observed. The index topped out just two tenths of a point shy of its 50-day moving average, and subsequently closed just three-tenths of a point above our straight-line support at 1320. Frequent readers may recall 1320 as a level we initially identified in the November 12th review. Yet more recently, 1320 served as a notable pivot point for six consecutive sessions beginning Technical_Levels_:0954">January 28th. In the chart above, you can see two of our levels from the review yesterday weren't too far from the mark. This is an intraday chart of Tuesday's trade activity in which each bar on the chart represents the opening and closing levels for each five-minute time frame. Note the index topped out intraday at 1321, and also observed a pivot point in the vicinity of 1312. Those two areas matched up well with the levels we identified in advance yesterday -- our initial resistance rested at 1320, and the initial support point was identified at 1313. Now those who have followed along know one of our broader themes has been the Dow's relative weakness versus the Nasdaq. On several recent occasions, pronounced sell pressure on the Dow has coincided with relatively flat price activity on the Nasdaq. So the chart above is a daily chart of the Dow Industrials in which each bar on the chart represents the opening and closing levels for each day. There are several obvious take aways from this chart. The first, and perhaps most important, is the index closed at a new calendar-year low yesterday -- that 7704 level marks its worst close of 2003. Yet the second point is the Dow's relative weakness didn't materialize out of the blue. At the beginning of today's review, we touched on the Nasdaq's recent reversal off its 50-day moving average -- that blue line on the chart. While the Nasdaq observed this 50-day moving average, the Dow didn't come anywhere close to touching the blue line. So this general theme of relative Dow weakness remains alive and well. Now before we get to the current outlook on the Nasdaq, there is an important point here regarding the Dow. We've already stated the index touched a new low for the year. Yet it's worth noting the Dow's Relative Strength Index or RSI (not shown on the chart) neglected to follow suit -- i.e. that indicator did not put in a new calendar-year low. This is a relatively notable development to the market technician. It suggests sell pressure on this current leg lower is more limited than the prior leg, and serves as a favorable divergence for market bulls. While we don't want to lean too heavily on a single technical indicator, that RSI divergence does suggest the aggressive trader will want to remain open to the prospect of a reversal. Without restating the obvious, a reversal on the Dow would be favorable for the Nasdaq as the Dow has served as a drag all year. Getting to the Nasdaq itself, note the index managed to hold support at 1300 yesterday despite the pronounced weakness on the Dow. This means the technical story for the Nasdaq remains more or less the same. The near-term bias deteriorates on a failure to hold support at 1300, while the bias improves if the index can reclaim a posture above 1330. Getting to the more detailed technical levels -- look for notable initial support in the vicinity of 1298 to 1301, followed by a modest support point at 1292. To the upside, watch for initial resistance at 1313 followed by more significant overhead at our straight-line area of 1320. -- Mike Ashbaugh, Briefing.com finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+ATYT+BRCM+GNSS+INTC+KLAC+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MOT+MU+MXIM+NSM+NVLS+RMBS+TER+TXN+XLNX+^IXIC+^NDX+^SPX+^VIX+^VXN+^STI.N+SMH&d=t Thanks BWAC. I'm going to need to take some time to read through this PRU Valuation information: 205.232.165.149 RtS