Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NOW who wrote (67902)	3/5/2003 1:08:20 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

>>cant help but feel that everyone is too bearish here<< don't know who "everybody" is!! -- p/c approached 1 for a day and then sank back to the low levels again -- vols very well behaved -- I think a lot of folks are looking up. be careful using SI for sentiment, IMO. I'll stick my neck out here -- I think we are going much lower and really soon.

To: NOW who wrote (67902)	3/5/2003 4:21:35 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Wave A of this Flat projects an end to wave C at 829, which is also a Fib. level. This latest rise would also count 5 waves well (which is how wave C's in Flats count). One of the higher Fib. levels is still possible, but this correction looks to be about done. I was actually hoping we get up here to the 830 area because it makes it more obvious that this is a correction of the wave 1 decline from 952. Wave 3 should follow - regardless of where this eventually ends. All the Best, Brian

To: NOW who wrote (67902)	3/5/2003 4:36:20 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 209892

cant help but feel that everyone is too bearish here: either we are supposed to think the recognition wave is upon us (unlikely given liquidity and sentiment) or that inverse H&S is aboutr to give bears a real asshanding. but the real surprise would be range bound down around here till options Why is the real surprise nothing? I expect nothing. The real surprise is if if breaks either way. If it does I will fade the move either way. I lightened up 50% of my QQQ puts on the opening dip. I will sell the rest if we break 24 I will add back over 25. I have June puts so I am not concerned about time here. There are 340K puts and 240K calls at strike 25. That is nuts if you ask me. Then look at calls stacking up above 25 and puts below. Everone is convinced of a break here. Why should one happen? Spoos are harder to read. My strategy there is Long a June 900 Put and short a March 835 put. A close at 840 or below and I have a profit on both. 825 or 830 probably maximizes my profit but not so sure. If we just keep on tanking below 800 I will have a gain but nowhere near what I would have without the hedge. If we rally back to 840 I also might consider taking the short put off the table (it will be decayed by a lot) hoping for a pullback and adding it back at a better price. That is how I am playing this mess and much of it says we stay rangebound or slightly down thru this expiry. Finally if you are talking about an inverse H&S patter that measures to DOW 11,800 or whatever - that simply is not going to happen M