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To: reaper who wrote (225703)	3/5/2003 3:00:39 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 436258

<<what has gotten into the builders today??>> Recognition wave? "Nothing to see here, move along folks...."<G>

To: reaper who wrote (225703)	3/5/2003 3:05:58 PM
From: MythMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

>>Schering-Plough lowers 2003 earnings forecast Wednesday March 5, 2:59 pm ET KENILWORTH, N.J., March 5 (Reuters) - Schering-Plough Corp. (NYSE:SGP - News) on Wednesday lowered its 2003 profit forecast, blaming slumping sales of its allergy and hepatitis C treatments. The company estimated earnings of 75 cents to 85 cents per share for the year, down from a previous estimate of $1.00 to $1.15 per share. The announcement marks the second time Schering-Plough warned its 2003 profit would be lower than previously estimated. In October, after an unexplained three-day, 20-percent stock slump, the company set its 2003 view well below the $1.42 per share analysts on average estimated at the time. First quarter earnings are expected at 10 cents per share, well below the average estimate of 25 cents per share from analysts polled by Thomson First Call (News - Websites). <<

To: reaper who wrote (225703)	3/6/2003 12:44:39 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

From Plunger on my board on the FOOL OK guys, what are pension plans forecasting the stockmarket will deliver? 8.5% ish on average? What will it actually deliver over say a 20% timeframe? I reckon zero real. +1% pa from dividends. +3% from companies reinvesting the remainder of profits so as to be able to grow the business in line with a real GDP growth rate of 3%. -2% from debasement through stock options and stock grants to insiders -2% from steady disenfranchisement of current businesses, owned largely by outsiders, by new growth businesses owned largely by insiders. In support of the last point I ask who were the major shareholders in Microsoft, Intel and Cisco as they rose? And of IBM, not to mention Digital Equipment or Sperry Univac as they declined? Or all-in one, who owned JDSU as it climbed post IPO and post multiple stock-for-stock takeovers - versus JDSU as it fell post insider bailing? A net zero % per annum all-in real return. Less frictional dealing costs and less management fees and expenses for mutual funds! So as we move forward, those pension and wealth-deficit issues are just going to get bigger as year after year a hoped for 9% becomes an actual zero or less. The financially-engineered “surpluses” now bite back with a vengeance. So what happens if we become Financial Engineers from Hell and NPV those pension fund liabilities. (Decent, P.C. FEs only ever NPV profits of course). Say some guy we'll call Mr J.6P is mid-40s, works for IBM and the pension plan actuaries calculate they will need $1 mio to cover his already-incurred pension liability for retirement in 20 years time (today's dollars). At zero stockmarket returns they would need to have $1 mio invested to cover this. What do they actually have? Well at 8.5% forecast returns, they would only have $190,000. But in practice they are even short of that!. They are 85% underfunded and hoping the problem will go just away in time!. It will in fact grow steadily more obvious. Sorry Mr 6P, things don't look so good. And what's more even negative real interest rates don't solve this one. Can anyone say denial? They do about Japan's comparative speck of a denial problem. But not about the plank in our own front yard. What does this say about the viability of these final pension-plan loaded companies? And if they are allowed to shirk the contracts what does it say about the extent of the wealth effect and how much more saving is needed going forwards, at the expense of consumption? Interest rates are going to zero and staying there. Plunger.