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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BSGrinder who wrote (29103)	3/6/2003 4:33:03 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 36161

BSG... re: how do I reconcile prior thoughts ? re: ["Slider, a year and a half ago you wrote: "I've heard that Steve Forbes,Jack Kemp & Larry Kudlow and now Andy Smith all citing the $340-$350 gold price figure.... is not an arbitrary figure...but, rather an openly acknowledged/behind closed doors, FED targeted liquidity barometer that will be reached."] xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx You've lost me...as this is my point. Gold to a significant degree...has been unchained. Gold was allowed to rise to a level, that over the last 27 years has been a pretty bullish price level...ie: $350ish. I've pounded the table on 2 points on judging gold prices historically. 1. Ignore & throw out the anomalous move to $800 from Nixon closing the Gold Window...it was a unique speculative mania...not dis-similar to the recent Tech/Telcom Bubble. 2. GOLD has NOT been in a 27 year bear market if you remove that anomalous move...no more of a Bear Market than if the NASDQ rises 10% a year for the next 6,7 years to 3000 - would you then discount the validity of the move in Technology at that point - as STILL being in a 7 year "Bear Market" since at NAZ 3,000 they'd still be no where near the prior high of NAZ 5000 ? That's what critics did to Gold...they used $800 as the starting point for the trendline....if they use NASDQ 5,000 as the same starting point, Tech could boom for the next 5,6,7 years and the stocks could be said to STILL be in a longterm BEAR Market - if you use NAZ 5000 as anything other than an anomalous event. $800 Gold was an anomalous specultive bubble - the same that NAZ 5000 was. Gold is now in a historically positive/bullish level. Gold has only moved into the upperband of it's bullish range of $425-$450 a couple of times in the last 27 years (ignoring the $800 speculative mania). And let me bring up another REALITY CHECK point once again - that is lost on everyone here citing a reason to stay long here as - "not wanting to miss a significant upside/breakout move on a historic "event" - should the markets close etc". Well let's remind everyone that Goldstocks/the HUI moved a whopping 4...as in "FOUR" pithy points after the market reopened after the September 11th Terrorisist Attacks..... 4 points. HUI closed at 63.71 on Sept 10th 2001. HUI closed at 67.73 on Sept 17th 2001. Gold now has a reasonable WAR/TERRORISM Hedge premium built into the price....at $390 - it had much too much of a premium and promptly got whacked down to $340. $350 Gold "right here/right now" - is neither overly attractive as a long, or short proposition for me ... it's fairly, to slightly over-valued imho. I agreed with what Forbes, Kudlow & Jack Kemp said...that the Fed was being pressured to let Gold freely move to levels indicative of adequate Fed liquidity...and the Fed did add liquidity...and Greenspan warned the Gold Derivatives players...and "some" of those derivatives were obviously unwound ...and Gold did move to where Forbes, Kudlow, Kemp et al... said it should. I'm not sure I get your point, on this issue ? - if you expand on it...I'd be happy to answer your question. On your question on whether this recent upside move in Gold was primarially due to a WAR/TERRORISM HEDGE... all you had to do was watch the headlines, or listen to the commentary of the dealers. WHY do you think the COMMERCIALS went so heavily SHORT into this run ? BECAUSE THEY F@#$!'n KNOW - WHO was buying and even more importantly - WHY they were buying ! re: SPECULATORS and SMALL moronic TRADERS buying on WAR/TERRORISM HEDGE - fears....PERIOD ! Tell me what dynamically changed from November to January economically, or currency-wise ? Tell me what non-War/Terrorism thing changed so dramatically during that timeframe to drive gold, if it wasn't WAR & Terrorism ? The USD has been much, much weaker against the Euro than it is here ? The Stock Market has been lower than here ? Economic news hasn't really gotten worse; arguably in some area's its better ? We haven't had a new series of Tyco's, Enron's, Global Crossing's, or WCOM's blow up ? - no new accounting scandals ? ...if it wasn't WAR/Terrorism - build me the case as to what it was ? Because nothing significant - has changed in the deficits, the USD, the economy, or the market....that's all old/known news and trends. And vis a vie ....the relationship between GOLD and War with IRAQ ....here's a little TEST QUESTION - let's see if anyone get's this underhanded softball lob correct here... If we do not go to War - what will Gold do & how do you play it ...and why ? If we do go to War - what will Gold do & how do you play it ...and why ?