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To: jjstingray who wrote (67937)	3/5/2003 5:42:29 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

>>I think too many people are overthinking this war<< except the folks in charge, perhaps??

To: jjstingray who wrote (67937)	3/5/2003 6:13:59 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Fully agree. I think, however, that after the initial volatility the markets will decline when the war begins. This is not 1991, and now it is understood that we are vulnerable, and there will be fear of a dangerous attack against us. If the perception sets in that such an attack will not occur, than a short term rally would be likely. IMO, the war is inevitable. If we back off at this stage, every freako terrorist on the planet will claim a great victory against the "rotting soft superpower".

To: jjstingray who wrote (67937)	3/5/2003 11:31:36 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I think the response may be Pavlovian at this point. So many people have been conditioned to think that a rally will happen when war breaks out (or the situation is resolved otherwise) that I expect a knee-jerk rally. It could take a couple of days to sucker everybody in, and depending upon how many shorts it spooks, it could last several more days. However, it should be over pretty quickly. Of course, the conventional wisdom is totally wrong. This setup doesn't look the least bit like 1991; it looks a lot more like 1931. I will be selling into the relief rally. BC