Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Freep who wrote (67968)	3/6/2003 11:49:42 AM
From: jimcav	Respond to of 209892

Nothing worse than trying to count corrective garbage...anyway trying a small long here with a stop on new LOD--just in case this is right and we get a iii of C up. marketswing.com EDIT:!! oops supposed to be wiggle thread

To: The Freep who wrote (67968)	3/6/2003 12:03:46 PM
From: bcrafty	Respond to of 209892

OT: Freep, I think that's great Astronomy is a more overlooked science for children than other sciences, I believe. As a skywatcher since I was a kid, my biggest beef is the amount of ambient light in the suburbs that makes viewing very poor. For instance, on an average night I can almost never see the Milky May unless I go to the country. I know LA isn't too good for viewing unless you go to the mountains or the desert. Two of the best skies I have ever seen were in Death Valley (if you haven't been there, it's otherworldly beautiful) and Belleville Ontario, a small town north of Toronto.

To: The Freep who wrote (67968)	3/6/2003 12:40:17 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 209892

FED WATCH: Sun Storms Stand As Enemy For Unaware Stocks By Michael S. Derby Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Thinking of investing in the stock market? The first call you may want to make is to an astonomer rather than a stockbroker. New research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta says storms on the surface of the sun which explode into space and then hit the Earth's atmosphere exert an undeniable influence over the direction of the stock market. The paper was authored by economists Anna Krivelyova of Boston College and Cesare Robotti of the Atlanta Fed. They've found that spikes in what they call geomagnetic storms tend to increase investor anxiety levels and weigh on stock market prices as a result. "The previous week's unusually high levels of geomagnetic activity have a negative and statistically significant effect on today's stock returns for seven out of nine countries" and across a wide range of stocks, including those traded on the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange, the authors noted. At the same time, when these geomagnetic storms are at a low point, the analysts found "evidence of substantially higher returns around the world." Geomagnetic storms in the Earth's atmosphere are caused by explosions of plasma on the surface of the sun. Peak season for the storms comes between March and April, and between September and October. Most of the time, the explosions on the sun and their aftermath miss the Earth entirely, but sometimes they don't. The storms, typically lasting for two to three days, are responsible for phenomena like the ethereal Northern Lights - rapidly shifting patches and dancing columns of light of various hues. Small Stock Hazard The impact of the storms on equity markets tends to be felt more in small-capitalization stocks than anywhere else, the researchers said. "We rationalize this finding by noticing that institutional ownership is higher for large (capitalization) stocks," which leaves those securities more insulated from the sort of mood swings the storms induce in individuals, the paper said. Perhaps in anticipation of the skeptics, the economists note there's an established history of the effects of geomagnetic storms in engineering and medical fields. They point out such storms pose major problems for satellite operators and even for the durability of oil pipelines in Alaska. Health authorities in countries bordering the Arctic regularly issue health alerts during times of increasing storm frequency. "There seems to be a direct causal relationship between geomagnetic storms and common depressive disorders," the paper said. At its most basic level, the geomagnetic storms reduce investor appetite for risk, and thus the tolerance for buying stocks. Before investors start eyeing the heavens however, the researchers, while able to conclude that storm-free days bring "substantially higher" returns versus those under stormy stretches, ran into trouble trying to create a viable trading strategy. "Even if geomagnetic storms are predictable, their frequency, intensity, and persistence varies over time," the paper said. Adding to the challenge, "stock returns are substantially lower during bad (storm) days, but remain mostly positive on average." Even with their difficulties, Krivelyova and Robotti say a strategy that takes advantage of the geomagnetic storms could be created, employing sophisticated financial hedging plays, or by using options on stock market indexes. The depressive impact on moods caused by the sun storms has echoes in another unusual phenomena: the normal waxing and waning of sunlight through the year also influences the course of the stock market. Last year other researchers at the Atlanta Fed noted that periods of the year in which days are shortest tend to bring the lowest returns in global stock markets. For now, at least, stock investors can stick to the fundamentals in making their trading decisions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Environment Center on Tuesday noted no unusual geomagnetic storm activity, although it said a minor storm may be looming. -Michael S. Derby, Dow Jones Newswires