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To: Earlie who wrote (226018)	3/6/2003 6:51:49 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

In reviewing the long-term charts tonight, I get the distinct impression of a market on the brink. I do NOT know if it will be pushed over the brink, but what I do know is this: if price pushes much lower, it should bring on a ton of new supply (ah, the bizarre shape of the stock supply/demand curve - where else does falling price increase supply?) I also get the impression that many of the former "safe havens" are being raided as we speak. Retail is clearly rolling over to me, and homebuilding appears to be launching the recognition wave down. Financials, especially those exposed to the stock market, look like crap. Volumes are rising now as many of these stocks approach or breach key levels. Stocks that appear to be asserting downside leadership: Look at PG - if they don't fix that one quckly, it is going to add serious pressure to the Dow. In the homebuilders, most have completed low-volume upward corrections following initial impulses downward, and should now be in recognition: PHM MDC RYL TOL Some consumer finance in similar boat, others finally completing rounding tops: BBBY HDI HI PVN Financials are getting heavy selling pressure: IFIN MBI SCH INFY has breached key rising support (finally!) And I don't think any serious retest of the October low would be complete without weakness appearing in the following issues: KLAC LLTC MXIM LRCX MERQ NVLS HLIT IBM I remember a quote from 2000 in which someone said that the whole global economy depended upon the US stock market, which depended upon 100 technology companies, most of which had never posted the first dollar of profit. Well, now the whole of the global economy depends upon three companies: MBI, FNM, and JPM. Watch these closely. They represent the trio of pillars supporting the unsustainable global economy: structured finance bubble, mortgage bubble, and derivatives bubble. I am particularly intrigued by the activity in MBI. It is building a mythical triple bottom. If it fails (and in all likelihood it will - triple bottoms are very rare), I will immediately release a portion of my hedges at the market. They are the structured finance bubble. BC

To: Earlie who wrote (226018)	3/6/2003 7:32:02 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Hi Earlie, I gave the market the death knell today because I actually sold 25% of my Prudent Bear that I had a 125% gain on since three years ago--in order to add to my load of natural gas stocks. So moving something from the short side clears the way for total collapse <G> Sometimes we just have to make a sacrifice to the market gods <G> Because so many producers and drillers got burned by jumping in too fast two years ago, and because of the very cold winter, the US and Canadian governments may have to impose natural gas rationing come next fall. A crash program to build a pipeline to Alaska or to the MacKenzie Delta might bring more gas down in few years, but I think energy Armageddon may almost be here. And I have not been a catastrophist on this subject until recently--indeed, last December, I was very skeptical. But the shortage is building very fast now.

To: Earlie who wrote (226018)	3/6/2003 7:44:25 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 436258

Natural Gas: Tulsa World, Okla. - March 6, 2002 Mar. 6--Natural gas supplies are depleted to the point that some storage operators have run out of inventories, Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens said Wednesday. "They told me they can't get anything else out," said Pickens, the featured speaker at a luncheon hosted by the International Society of Energy Advocates in Tulsa. Pickens, an Oklahoma native who now lives in Dallas, is perhaps best known for his attempt to take over Phillips Petroleum Co. in the 1980s. Mesa Petroleum Co., the company he founded in 1956, was one of the largest independent oil and gas companies in the nation. He now heads BP Capital, an investment firm based in Dallas. Pickens warned that if gas supplies keep falling at the present rate, more storage operators will lose the ability to pull supplies from underground storage facilities. The situation could lead to supply shortfalls this winter. "We could find ourselves with real problems," Pickens said. As gas supplies fall, the pressure inside storage facilities declines. If gas supplies drop below a certain level, the capacity to withdraw inventories from storage will be limited due to insufficient pressure. U.S. supplies are nearing that point, which is around 600 billion to 700 billion cubic feet, Pickens said. Extremely cold weather has sapped the nation's inventory of gas, which is used to heat most American homes. A lack of drilling activity has also contributed to the shortfall. As a result, gas prices have skyrocketed. Last month, gas prices soared to $18 to $19 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) in some markets. Gas close Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange at $7.02 per mcf, up from $2.46 on the same day last year. "I don't think I'll ever see gas prices below $4 again," Pickens said. "We're in a new world." Pickens said higher gas prices are good for domestic producers, but added that unreasonably high prices could kill demand for the commodity. The supply-demand imbalance must be repaired, Pickens said. "You can't keep going up to the edge of the cliff and looking over," he said. Despite the more lucrative prices, producers are reluctant to drill for new supplies because they question the stability of today's prices, Pickens said. He pointed to December 2000, when gas prices soared to $10 per mcf. Many producers made big investments in drilling projects only to see prices plummet shortly thereafter. Pickens also said gas producers are not responsible for replacing the nation's supply with new production each winter. "What I'm responsible for is my shareholders," he said. The recommended storage level for the winter heating season, which begins Nov. 1, is 3 trillion cubic feet. By season's end, which is April 1, the industry prefers to have 1 tcf left in storage, enough to rebuild supplies for the next season. U.S. gas supplies are down 48 percent from last year, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. With 1 tcf left in storage, experts say supplies will likely fall to 600 bcf by April