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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (14040)	3/6/2003 8:50:25 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

Commentary: Quick war has long-term consequences By Paul Erdman CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 11:52 AM ET March 5, 2003 SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- American troop levels in the Persian Gulf now exceed the mass felt critical by the Pentagon to achieve a quick military victory. Public opinion, worldwide, is already over the top in its opposition to war. Government after government is caving in to this overwhelming sentiment. With France, Germany and Russia now having openly joined forces in opposition to the United States, America is hopelessly outgunned and outnumbered in the Security Council. The weather window will soon begin to close. So from the point of view of the Bush administration, it may be now or never. Therefore, you can expect to war begin within 10 to 14 days. In the meantime, as investors, follow Warren Buffett's advice. Do nothing. By all means hang on to your cash, your bonds, your real estate, your gold. It's too late to unload more of your stocks. So probably the best policy is to just close your eyes for a while, and hang on. Gamblers among you can wait for what you consider the decisive moment after the war has begun, and then take a plunge on one of the stock indexes, assuming that a quick victory will produce a big one-time upward pop in the market. But don't suggest this to your grandma. The more prudent may consider this, if it materializes, as an excellent selling opportunity. For the longer haul, remember that this war will definitely not be over when it's over. The postwar costs will be enormous. The deficit will soar. The geopolitical isolation of the United States, unique in its history, is bound to have a negative impact on the activities of American corporations operating abroad and on the willingness of foreigners to invest in the United Sates. So the dollar will fall further. Consumer confidence will fall further. And corporate investments will remain on hold. I sincerely hope that I will be dead wrong on all of the above. As an American I feel that Saddam Hussein must be dealt with sooner or later, in any case before he has developed the weapons that would put him in the same position as the leader of North Korea is in today. America is the only nation that has the will and the power to tackle this threat, either now or later. Our leaders have concluded that it must be now. So be it. One can only hope that the war will be mercifully brief, the damage in terms of human life mercifully small, and that the Iraqi people will regard us as liberators, not occupiers. But at the same time, I cannot help but deplore the total ineptness of the Bush clique in making its case for this war. They have also failed to play it straight with the American public as to the potential ultimate cost of this war -- in the broadest sense of that word. And so they have opened up a Pandora's box of unforeseen consequences. This war may only last days, but those consequences will live on for months and years. And all of us will have to live with them as best we can. ____________________________________ Economist and author Paul Erdman is a CBS.MarketWatch.com columnist.