War Diary: Friday, March 7, 2003
Mar 07, 2003
The presidents of both the United States and of Iraq spoke today, Thursday, March 6 -- the U.S. president slightly after midnight, GMT. Both were defiant. U.S. President George W. Bush was defiant of the United Nations, saying, “When it comes to our security, we will act, and we don’t need United Nations approval to do so.” Saddam Hussein was defiant of the United States, saying that Iraq would not be an easy morsel to swallow, and that if the United States attacked, it would regret it. There was no give.
Bush’s argument in essence was that U.N. Resolution 1441 states that this was the final opportunity for Iraq to disarm, that U.N. inspectors know that he has not disarmed and that, therefore, Hussein is subject to the consequences of his failure. Interestingly, Bush also said that he would insist on a vote on a second resolution. His reasoning was that he wanted everyone on the record, implying that the act of public voting would put pressure on France and the others. Since that is a dubious assumption, it would appear that the United States was bending to British pressure to have a second resolution, and that he was setting the stage for defying its outcome. In his words, the United States is in the “final stages of diplomacy.” And that -- unless Hussein capitulates -- there will be no chance to avoid war.
He spoke of war as if it was a foregone conclusion, although he frequently, almost as an afterthought, asserted that war was not yet inevitable. When asked if he would give time for inspectors, journalists and humanitarian workers in Iraq to leave, Bush said that he would. He seemed to be telling journalists at least that it is time to leave. It was not clear whether he was fully prepared for that question, and therefore there are limited conclusions that can be drawn from his answer in terms of war timing.
Of particular interest was a reference to a federation of Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites. That implies that, after the war, Iraq would have a federal structure in which these three communities each would have a degree of autonomy inside of a federation. In addition, he avoided harsh attacks on France and Germany, instead merely singling them out as friends with whom there is a disagreement, signaling a willingness to reconcile after the recent animosity.
On several occasions, in speaking of regime change, Bush mentioned that Hussein must be removed. Given March 6 reports that the mayor of Baghdad had traveled to Belarus -- possibly discussing asylum for Hussein -- it might be the case that, with diplomacy having failed, opponents of the war -- and of a U.S. occupation of Iraq -- are engaged in a final effort to convince Hussein to accept exile. If so, there nothing in Hussein’s speech indicated such a move.
The two presidents’ rhetoric indicates that war is very near -- likely in a matter of days. Bush said he was prepared to go to the United Nations for one last round of diplomacy and a vote, but that he neither expected it to work, nor would he deterred if it didn’t. The question on the vote is timing. If the vote is not going to work, then dragging it out for another week makes no sense. Stratfor has speculated in the past about the possibility of calling for a snap vote in the Security Council based on the fact that the new resolution is simply a restatement of 1441. It is possible that U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell will, tomorrow, call for such a vote immediately or no later than Monday.
Reports from in theater indicate that U.S. forces are preparing for war. We have been noting increased air activity and were particularly struck by March 6 reports that U.S. Marines had begun cutting holes in the fence on the Kuwait-Iraq border.
Equipment for the 101st Airborne Division began arriving today in Kuwait. If the air war began early next week, there would be ample time for offloading and preparation.
It would appear that Bush in essence stated that, following this last vote, we are at most days from war -- regardless of the vote’s outcome. War therefore could begin at any point following tomorrow’s meeting of the Security Council until later next week. Unless Hussein chooses to disarm or to go into exile.
What could happen, however, is that Hussein either will pledge complete disarmament -- which of course could not be achieved in such a short period of time -- or will hint at abdication, without actually doing it. Hussein’s next move likely will be to appear suddenly accommodating to U.S. demands. The U.S. fear has to be that he will use available time to create more confusion by appearing to accede to demands in order simply to buy time and push the U.S. war schedule further off balance. Thus -- as has been the case in the past few weeks -- the United States has an interest in shortening the time until war. |
