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Strategies & Market Trends : The Great Coin Toss Experiment II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sojourner Smith who wrote (65)	3/7/2003 1:39:32 AM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 188

try this strategy for paper trading: Use the SPX (puts and calls) Wait for days when there is either a gap up or down. If there is a gap up, buy puts generally in the first 45min. Sell when the gap fills. If there is a gap down, buy calls within the first 45 min, sell when the gap fills. This works for intraday gaps as well.

To: Sojourner Smith who wrote (65)	3/7/2003 1:45:08 AM
From: Sojourner Smith	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 188

Not sure I have proved in conclusively but it appears tossing a coin will lose money. Doing the same thing each day, will also probably lose money even with trending stock. I haven't proved it fully, but I tested it on 3 years various stocks. (this is daytrading.) So the only choices are: buy and hold (not too appealing) and trying to put the odds in one favor by identifying trends within trends. Which of course is what every TA person tries to do.