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To: Tomas who wrote (19873)3/7/2003 9:56:29 AM
From: Tomas  Respond to of 206093
 
Natural Gas Supplies Might Decline to Record
By Geoffrey Smith

New York, March 7, 09:25 (Bloomberg) -- Natural-gas futures may gain for the first day in five amid concerns that supplies in storage may drop to the lowest ever at the end of the month.

Inventories at the end of the heating season will drop to at least a record 515 billion cubic feet, said Joe Allman, an oil and gas analyst with RBC Capital Markets in Houston. The lowest was 697 billion cubic feet in April 1996.

Gas for April delivery rose 4.9 cents to $6.893 per million British thermal units in New York Mercantile Exchange electronic trading after falling 16 percent in the past four days. The price surged 28 percent last week as persistent colder-than-normal weather in the Northeast and Midwest continued to slash supplies.

Inventories last week declined 176 billion cubic feet, or 17 percent, to 838 billion cubic feet from the previous week, the U.S. Energy Department said yesterday. Analysts had forecast a drop of 184 billion, according to a Bloomberg survey.

``Next week's supply number is more important,'' said Michael Hiley, a gas broker with ABN Amro Inc. in New York. ``I would not be surprised to see a similar number next week.''

Inventories in the week ended Feb. 28 fell 54 percent from a year earlier. The year-to-year drop was 48 percent in the week ended Feb. 21 and 43 percent in the week ended Feb. 14.

``What tends to drive prices fundamentally over the intermediate term is whether the storage numbers result in a rising surplus or a rising deficit,'' said Tim Evans, senior energy analyst with IFR Pegasus in New York. ``What we're seeing week by week is a larger and larger deficit. We're falling farther and farther behind.''