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Non-Tech : Raptor's Den -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lifeisgood who wrote (8573)	3/7/2003 2:17:27 PM
From: 1podstock	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10157

Lifeisgood..I don't mean go long now. My strategy is to scale into longs once the October lows are tested/broken, and average down. My thought process is this (once Oct lows are touched/broken): if AMAT is at 10s, buy a few hundred shares then if it drops, average down. An astute chart reader can load up at one point in time and make big bucks. I am not an expert chart reader....but I do know that if I were able to get 2000 shares of AMAT at average of $7-8, I don't have a problem holding for investment purposes. I figure, $16,000 in my bank account, over a number of years, won't return any significant vs. $16,000 in AMAT. Sure, market could be in doldrums for next 10 years, and AMAT could hang at $3-5 for 10 years, leaving me at a paper loss.....but these are the odds I am happy to take. But if you short today, who is to say that big boys won't take markets higher and higher (for however long, for whatever reason) ---- somewhere along the line, shorts have to cover. There's only so much you can average UP before you cave in. As someone once said, "markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent". That's why it's "safer" to be long now than short. I sit and watch while all this bulllshit goes on in the markets. I know markets should, at the very least, test its lows, but I refuse to short at this point in time, b/c I hate being stopped out for a loss. If you short QQQs now, at 24s, what would you do if it flies to 26s, 30s, 33s? Somewhere along the line, you cover for a loss; only to find out, 6 months later, QQQs now drop to 20s. Sure, You, I, and everyone knows QQQs should be retesting its lows of 20, for a profit for shorts of $4/share. But these big boys can take QQQs much higher, without a retest, just because.