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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Madarasz who wrote (68097)	3/7/2003 6:55:17 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 209892

John, longer cycles have longer windows for the hits (plus/minus). I'm looking at the 55-day cycle and the big one you're tracking could end up being highs. I'm looking for a low on the 12th/13th and a high on the 18th. The high on the 18th I'm looking for would be at 1017 NDX, which would tag the top of the triangle off the Dec/Jan highs. 1017 NDX would take care of Max Pain and a final hit on that line before a drop. We don't have anymore futures expiration for 3-months, and the April and May open interest is quite low for options. In other words, if they want to hold this up, March is the month to do it. If they're sick of holding this up, April is the month to take it down. I'm looking for a drop after Max Pain into early April for a local low at the Bradley turn, a small bounce into April 15 for the other Bradley, and a drop into the end of April to take out the October lows and bring us in line with the rest of the world markets. From there, I think we ramp sharply into June, but not enough to take out today's lows, with distribution into the Bradley turn in July. After that, I think we drop again to new lower lows in the fall, a sharp rally to the previous floor, then an ED into next summer. Anyway, that's what I'm looking for right now. I'm not locked into that, as the market will show us where it's going to go.

To: John Madarasz who wrote (68097)	3/8/2003 7:04:50 PM
From: the-phoenix	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

I'm starting to consider the possibility that the 3/13 Bradley will be a high (possibly also fullfilling Shack's desire to see a brother rally to the 2/13 rally), and such that your 378TD cycle date could make a meaningful low. The recent mid-February lows appear to me to be quite strong and may hold here for another tradeable bounce. We are going to have to move down pretty hard right out of the gate next week for the 3/13 turn to be any kind of real intermediate-term tradeable low, and I am more and more doubtful that that will happen after Friday's rally out of a big gap down. That was the opportunity for this range to break and it didn't. So I am once again a very nervous and trigger-fingered short in the near term.