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Politics : Foreign Affairs - No Political Rants -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paul_philp who wrote (359)	3/7/2003 9:38:16 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 504

I think at this point we should discuss what we consider to be "winning" the war. Certainly it is a given that Saddam will be gone. But equally important in assessing how good of job Bush is doing in his war efforts. I am not bringing these up as reasons of not going to war. When we set clear objectives and expectations, then we can see if Bush exceeds them or fails them. To avoid misunderstandings, let me give a few examples of where I am going with this. Say I am against war. Among other things, I believe that it will have minimal effects on the Palestinian issue Having taken this position, if it turns out that real progress is made next year between Israel and Palestinians based on removal of Saddam, then clearly Bush has exceeded my expectations. Similarly, say I am for the war because it will prevent deaths of 5000 Iraqi kids a year (I will not discuss alternative means to achieve this). If it turns out that some 50,000 children are dead or orphaned because of the war, then I have prepaid for the next 10 years of damage. To me this would be a failure of the war objective (or at least one of the objectives). Even if we state the objective as a single goal, to remove Saddam and prevent Iraq from developing WMD, we still need clear expectations about the price. For example, let's take an extreme case for Iraq. Say we nuke Iraq so much to turn its sands into glass and kill its entire population. The nuclear radiation and population loss would certainly diminish the threat of Iraq and its alleged WMDs for a long long time. It would also have the additional effect of reducing proliferation of WMD. Do you think that is exactly what we should do tomorrow? If your answer is no, then you must have expectations as to what a desired outcome is beyond removing Saddam. Furthermore, you implicitly acknowledge that there are other desired outcomes beyond removing Saddam and threat of a nuclear Iraq. I am simply asking what those desired outcomes are and what are we willing to pay for them. Then at least we will know how to evaluate the progress of war. . With that said, here are the factors that I can think of the top of my head: (1) conventional costs: - how much is spent on troops and bombs - how much is spent to bring in "allies" - how long will the war take? - how many US soldiers are killed - how many US equipment is lost. - how many Iraqis are killed (will it be acceptable to kill or cause death of tens of thousands of civilians? Where will we draw the line?) (2) objectives: - How much nuclear and chemical weapons will be found (if no nukes are found or too few WMD, will Bush continue to think they exist in Iraq and could be passed around to terrorists, or will he just shrug his shoulders and say this is not an issue anymore and it must have been destroyed during air raids). - Will Iraq maintain its totality (this is a longer term question) - Will there be democracy in Iraq or at least a confederation that all Iraqis can live with. - Will it reduce terrorism (what if it increases it, will we consider that Bush lost the war) - Will it make the region more stable? (3) Post war costs - How much essential Iraqi facilities will be destroyed that will have to be rebuilt immediately after war (e.g. water, medical, chemical containment, etc) - How quickly will the wound between US and EU heal? How much will this war cost in terms of cooperation (and monetary) costs in seemingly unrelated parts? - How long will Iraq remain occupied? What if Bush proves he did not think through how to bring a stable regime in Iraq and ends up there for too long? - What if either another brutal dictatorship or military presence is required to keep the peace between all parties? What will be the cost of each mishap to US economy and currency? It is important to develop these expectations before we step in or else we may find ourselves in undesirable situations and not even know how we got there. Sun Tzu