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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (14186)	3/11/2003 1:37:38 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

MLSoft makes a good brief point on Roach's deflation we will see price inflation here in USA, and soon it just wont be big, since China looms large as a producer 90% of the Chinese mfred import price is shipping labor is something like 5% so even they will rise in price what MLSoft might overlook though is the continued debt collapse with higher production costs (seen evidence recently) will come profit squeeze or passed on higher prices, or both I expect more layoffs, a lot more, as a result with such a critical pinch on cash flows, we will see continued debt collapse also, despite heavy duty Fed Monetary print activity, we are seeing an historic reduction in "money velocity" but it gets no press whatsoever in this case, money is like racing dogs around a track every time they circle the track, sales taxes are paid, as well as other fixed payments but sales taxes are easiest to imagine so state coffers are drying up analogously, corporate coffers are suffering too they are seeing lessened product updates and renewals from a damped business cycle customers are "making do" with what they have, avoiding upgrades so the debt implosion will continue until the US Economy can no longer claim to have such an excess of it but since 2000, our debts have increased this tells me we have a long long long long way to go the Fed pulled us out of the "2001 Recession" but they have built the foundation for a monster recession upcoming a monster recession upcoming since debts are much greater now, versus 2000 and the layoffs are accelerating and the bankruptcies are accelerating while cracks are showing in the car, housing, and Fanny sectors so will deflation prevail? or will inflation prevail? I dont engage in simplistic aggregate thinking my answers are YES and YES we will see both more deflation from burned debt capital more inflation from accelerated Fed money presses more price deflation in liquidated finished products more price inflation in newly mfred finished products more price inflation in supplies, materials, imports nothing is simple in this new imbalanced distorted game that is the result of FINANCIAL ACROMEGALY !!! I believe the answers come only after considering what INFLATION is it is the expansion of monetary supply, increases in money floating around within the economy it produces price inflation where shortages were created it produces price deflation where mfg capacity went too far it produces monetary DEFLATION where debt is destroyed we will get all the above / jim