C.I.A. Warns U.S. Troops of Attacks in Iraq by Terror Groups
By THOM SHANKER and DAVID JOHNSTON
nytimes.com
WASHINGTON, March 8 — The C.I.A. has warned that terrorists based in Iraq are planning attacks against American and allied forces inside the country after any invasion, government counterterrorism officials say.
The agency's previously undisclosed assessment has circulated among senior Bush administration officials. It describes both the risks of terror attacks on American forces inside Iraq if an invasion occurs and the danger of similar attacks on troops already massing in the region.
The assessment goes beyond the threat posed by Saddam Hussein's military forces, predicting for the first time that groups that the Bush administration has said are given haven by Mr. Hussein's government may become engaged in the war, even if Iraq's military is defeated and the government overthrown. The administration has said that terrorists operating inside Iraq are affiliated with Al Qaeda, and that they are either tolerated by the Baghdad government or are based in parts of the country where the government exercises little control.
The conclusions are based on recently collected intelligence in the form of intercepted communications, "glimpses" of four to eight midlevel Qaeda operatives said to have been spotted in Iraq and an analysis of the organization's prior tactics, according to administration officials.
"The Al Qaeda network is intent on attacking U.S. interests throughout Iraq, as are other extremist Islamic groups," said one official who has read the C.I.A. threat assessment.
The assessment is one part of an array of intelligence being gathered by government agencies as part of the continuing campaign against terrorism, and is particularly important to the military now, as the United States and Britain gather their forces for a possible attack on Iraq.
It suggests that terrorist fighters may blend in with the Iraqi civilian population to get close enough to conduct strikes against allied troops during an invasion, officials said. Or they may attack American forces trying to stabilize Iraq after a war.
Terrorists might employ conventional explosives, or they might use unspecified "toxins," according to one official, quoting from the assessment.
It is thought the attacks are being planned as "independent terrorist operations," conducted by individuals or small groups rather than controlled by Iraqi military planners, one official said.
Presenting evidence to prove a direct connection between Al Qaeda and Iraq has been one of the most contentious aspects of the Bush administration's efforts to make its case for disarming Mr. Hussein of his weapons of mass destruction. But this assessment appears to have been prepared in order to help the military remain on guard, rather than to support the case for military action.
Even so, its disclosure could strengthen the administration's case that the campaign against terrorism is inextricably linked to the goal of unseating the Iraqi leader.
Critics of the administration's stance on Iraq have questioned its assertion that the Baghdad government has tolerated or even supported the Qaeda terrorist network headed by Osama bin Laden.
A map accompanying the C.I.A. assessment states that a cell of up to two dozen Qaeda operatives had been set up in Baghdad, echoing a charge made by Secretary of State Colin L. Powell in his speech on Feb. 5 at the United Nations.
The C.I.A. document identifies four Qaeda followers in Baghdad, described by one official as "second- or third-tier leaders." American officials who discussed the assessment declined to name those Qaeda lieutenants. Smaller cells are also believed to be operating in Mosul and Erbil, in northern Iraq, according to the analysis.
The C.I.A. report said those cells were organized by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a poisons expert and terror recruiter who in recent weeks has been identified by Mr. Powell and other administration officials as an important link between Iraq and Al Qaeda. With the capture of Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, Al Qaeda's chief of operations, other lieutenants — including Mr. Zarqawi — could assume a larger role, intelligence and law enforcement officials said.
In his presentation to the United Nations last month, Mr. Powell said Mr. Zarqawi began recruiting terrorists shortly after he arrived in Baghdad last May. Mr. Powell said that nearly two dozen militants joined Mr. Zarqawi and established a base of operations there, and that 116 suspected terrorists linked to Mr. Zarqawi had been arrested in Europe in recent weeks.
Officials in Germany, who investigated Mr. Zarqawi for more than a year, have agreed he is a terrorist, but dispute that he has a connection to Al Qaeda.
In Iraq, the C.I.A. threat assessment says, the Qaeda cells had organized freely, "but it doesn't make a big deal of Al Qaeda and Saddam," said one official who has read the analysis. "There's a confluence of interests, to be sure," the official said. "And that's dead Americans."
The threat assessment also cites intelligence reports indicating that in northern Iraq, including Kurdish areas only nominally under Mr. Hussein's control, 100 to 200 Qaeda operatives are believed to be working, along with 450 to 700 members of the extremist group Ansar al-Islam.
Intelligence officials said that some of the Qaeda followers in northern Iraq had fled there from the war in Afghanistan, and were not thought to be under the control of Mr. Zarqawi. Instead, they have established themselves as a loosely organized but separate force.
A summary of the report said its information was gathered by the C.I.A.; the National Security Agency, which specializes in electronic intelligence gathering; and the National Imagery and Mapping Agency, which provides surveillance.
One official familiar with the report said it appeared that as the military buildup around Iraq had accelerated, so had planning by Al Qaeda for attacks — which might explain a recent surge in communications by the terror network, and more opportunities for listening in.
"In their rush to plan," an official said, "they've made some mistakes." |
