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To: ajtj99 who wrote (68163)	3/9/2003 7:15:26 AM
From: the-phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I also see that as a good possibility. I have the 18th as the next major date in the 54-55 day cycle. Also a full moon. If we are at or above Max Pain by then, then a selloff into the following week could fit with a low on the 378TD cycle.

To: ajtj99 who wrote (68163)	3/9/2003 4:20:33 PM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 209892

My understanding was that the Bradley turns were plus/minus 4-days That's definitely a point of contention...both the Astriko's and William's models, which are taken practically verbatim from Bradley's book "Stock Market Prediction" both advocate an orb of +/- 2 days. Only Manfred Zimmel from Amanita mentions the +/-4 day orb, which is really pretty big if you think about it, that's 8 days sourrounding a turn. I guess depending on how you interperate the phrase...maybe all three models are saying that there is an allowance for the turn within 4 days of the date. This cycle stuff is worse than e-wave with all these friggin allowances...lol fwiw I have yet to find any mention of any orb timeframes around the calculated long term aspect dates in the Bradley writings I have, although Bradley does mention middle aspects within longer term cycle timeframes...and it's these middle aspects which will point out the smaller cycle turns within the larger trends that do develop. fwiw there is a middle aspect turn on the 10th, within the bigger trend that ends on the 14th. This middle aspect also turns again in the orb of the 3/14/03 date. This is another reason why we might get some type of turn Monday within the larger cycle which points to the low into the 14th. Based on volume and price, program trading, middling sentiment, FED support, indicators turning up, very low NYSE member short interest, COT, etc. etc. a decent case is being made for the possibility of some strength...more short covering and some kind of a rally short term. Zoran Gayer is looking for sharp down right off the bat Monday, but the tell will be any possible rebound above Fridays lows. If war does break out, which seems almost a certainty now, odds are very good imo at least initially U.S. forces will be kicking some ass. I think that will get a bullish spin. A lot of folks opined that we would have a really tuff time in Afganistan initially, and that early campaign went surprisingly well. The wild card is of course the looming WMD/ or devestating terror strike unknown that some madman may unleash...that can NEVER be priced in imo. I don't think it could be any more obvious that the current administration is supporting the market here to give the rest of the world an image of economic strength and stability. It's of paramount importance i think to our leaders, and will be defended till the printing presses actually blow up from the heat<ng> One look at how many Oct lows fell around the world while we stayed choppy but at almost par shows that. Maybe we'll get a washout here, or some hard chop down into those lows... who knows. I read some commentary from another really good cycle guy, Jim Curry, who said that longer term cycles like the 378 TD cycle can have an allowed variance of up to a month... There's only 6 more weeks of favorable calendar year left regarding U.S. equities before everyone "Sells in May, and goes away"... Perfect place for a frustrating index ramp sideways to higher while sector rotation continues to do it's thing...and individual equities and indexes are systematically worked over