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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (31567)	3/9/2003 4:02:31 PM
From: X Y Zebra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57110

I forget if this chart has been shown here, but I think it is worth looking at it.... Message 18676888 direct link: csf.colorado.edu Read conclusions: from Page 6 (pdf format) I barely can follow/comprehend e-wavers... (like learning a new language, I have huge gaps understanding the way they construct the waves)... however.... in reading the conclusions page... it seems that the logic behind it makes sense. ______________________________ Conclusions: 1 The TERMINAL that started 18 January is moving down too slow. This is mainly due to conflicting political events creating noise in the smaller degree patterns. The larger degree labeling remains unaffected. However, the noise has reached a level suggesting some caution by the BEARS short term. 2 Last week on Friday, the S&P completed another IRREGULAR FAILURE mirroring the one larger degree WAVE–2 IRREGULAR FAILURE. Mirroring endorses the two patterns and thus the BEARISH prognosis. 3 Wave [2] completed on Friday with a TEXT BOOK TERMINAL. 4 The high on Friday concluded with a wave five = wave three in a WAVE ONE EXTENSION TERMINAL. From a Trading point of view, this is an excellent entry point. Since WAVE 5, CANNOT BE GREATER THAN WAVE 3 IN THIS PATTERN, it is an excellent risk reward trade. 5 EXPECT THE S&P TO FALL WITH INCREASING MOMENTUM FROM MONDAY OPEN. The SIGNAL WILL BE IF THE S&P CANNOT HOLD AND TRADE ABOVE THE FRIDAY HIGH. 6 Though long term the long-term prognosis remains BEARISH, the short-term position is in a state of flux. An example of this is The Sons of Osama rally on Friday reversing a start of a third wave break on Friday morning. An unlikely event such as Sadam of going into exile would create a larger reaction. 7 In a BEAR market, the volumes tend to be low. This alone makes BEAR MARKETS more difficult to trade than BULL MARKETS. The difficulty is further increased by the political state of flux. The Financial cable TV commentaries are constantly positive looking for a bottom have trained the markets like Pavlov’s dog to react positively to the start of war. There is a strong believe “to sell on rumor of wars and buy when the cannons roar”. 8 Small increase in volume can easily create exaggerated price movements when turnovers are low. Pit rumors are easily instigated, with “Sons of Osama” rally on Friday again being the example. Until the larger pattern become challenge, these positive reactions become rallies into which to sell. (That is the reason for the pit rumors). Elliott large term charts suggests that the present problems are far deeper than the war with IRAQ and terrorism. No doubt, in time, both of these events will become the political scapegoats for economic mismanagement. You cannot have a BEAR market without economic (and/or rule of law) mismanagement.

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (31567)	3/9/2003 4:12:06 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57110

btw - I heard this morning and pictures were just shown on Fox - British troops were having practice exercises in Iraq near the Kuwait border - then, a bunch of Iraqi soldiers appeared with a white flag, surrendering - the Brits told the Iraqi soldiers, "we are just practicing. The war hasn't started yet. Go home. It's too early to surrender yet." -g-

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (31567)	3/9/2003 4:19:38 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Respond to of 57110

Marchs, smarches - I already know where we are going -g- Zeev is looking for lower 1200's on the nasd near end of March. "If the 1292 holds, then a small bounces could occur, but my indicators are set up much closer to the summer of 2001 before the big dump into 9/11, so my guess is that we will take out 1292, and probably have a mild bounce sometime in the next few days from the 1260/75, before we go to test the low 1200 where I expect a more meaningful bounce, yet, not the end of the GN 03." ======================= Carpino has lows end of March - Message 18674872 ============================== Arch Crawford -(g) "I am looking for a further decline and a low this month. I expect to see a rally from March into June and then the market will drop until the middle of November, reaching a bottom on November 23. After that, we'll have a bull market for a year or two and these will be the best years in four years." forbes.com ======================== AND, JJ's chart - Message 18676969 ========================= Any questions? -ggg-

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (31567)	3/9/2003 5:18:34 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

did you notice the bkx? On Friday, it broke that trendline from Oct lows before reversing back up - stockcharts.com