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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (80791)	3/9/2003 8:49:33 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 281500

I'm sort of thinking, maybe it's time for the Doves to shut up. the Hawks have their rope, and seem very determined to hang themselves. I am thinking along those lines too. Which is why I think now is the time to write down the expectations of the outcomes so we can be fair to Bush and Co. on their progress, while at the same time we prevent the politicians from patting themselves on the back no matter what. We should start with easy subjects, like how much it will cost, how long it will take, and how many casualties. Then we can look at other parameters, like will there be much found in the way of nuclear and bio weapons, will it decrease terrorism, and how many civilians will die. And of course we should consider post war issues, like what kind of regime will be in Iraq and how much better than Hassan-al-Bakr it will be (I can't imagine it being worse than Saddam) and how it will affect the US economy. And if we have time, we can look at longer term issues, like the effects of the rift with Europe and the international community in general. Afghanistan worked for them. Too soon to tell. The other night I was watching CNN and there was a news clip containing brief interviews with common Afghanis. I believed that if there is one good thing that Bush has done, it's been freeing the Afghans from the Taliban. So imagine my shock to hear the people say "The Taliban will be back and things will improve. This situation cannot last for too long". So I started to dig around a little bit and see what I come up with. It seems that not much has changed in Afghanistan, except that what little order existed is gone too. Since coming to power, not a single major infrastructure or even housing has been built for the people with the aid money (how much does Afghanistan get anyway?). Apparently, gang rapes and looting is quite coming outside of 3 major cities. This is the same condition that caused the people to yield to Taliban in the first place. Despite all the promises to the contrary, the story has been heavy on bombs and light on rebuilding. The only major development was the one that Bush said was not the idea at all, namely the building of trans-Afghanistan pipeline to bring oil from central Asia to the Indian ocean. > Maybe we will Build a wonderful nation in Iraq. Not a chance. The history of Iraq is dead against it for thousands of years because they are not one nation. They are 3 nations. This is Yugoslavia in the making (or continuing). The Turks understood that had divided Iraq into 3 independent provinces. Incidentally, this is how the administration is planning to rule the country while it is there. I have no idea how they will make them love each other when they have fought each other as long as Jews and Arabs have. The only lasting solution is the one that Bush doesn't like; let them be 3 separate countries. Sun Tzu