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To: mishedlo who wrote (226648)	3/9/2003 11:58:57 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 436258

<<Here is my take, If they can afford to test one, they probably have more than we think.>> Wrong. If they ONLY have one, and more on the way, then lighting the one they have is a great way for them to buy enough time to build, say, 10 and sell a couple to Al-Quieda for, say, $150 mil. Makes more sense then waiting till we hit 'em, then dropping the only one they've got on Tokyo or Seoul....a common poker gambit in Hold 'em, when one flops a flush draw is to raise right on the flop, BEFORE your hand is made, so as to freeze the other guy and get a "free card" on the Turn. This is an exactly analogous situation (not that Kim Il Jong plays hold 'em worth a $hit, mind you, but the same theory applies....)