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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (33323)	3/10/2003 1:37:34 PM
From: Jack Bridges	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 196720

Is it possible that the GSM bunch is devoting attention to the "free spectrum allocation six times greater" than a GSM carrier's existing allocation, per Airnet/ArrayComm announcement of February 6?

To: carranza2 who wrote (33323)	3/10/2003 4:00:39 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196720

DW-40 Redux, c2, << Didn't think so. >> I'm glad that you answered your own question [below]. << Can you state with any degree of knowledge that GSM1x in its present form is in the same state of maturity as the system trialed in Newbury five years ago? >> I can not, and I would not. Back then, there was little protocol conversion, no cell broadcast, no data services, no inter system handover. A GSM SIM rather than a CDMA SIM was used in a handful of modified (SIM enabled) QCP-1900's and Qualcomm manufactured infrastructure and some software designed by TTP connected to a Nokia MSC on a Vodafone test switch using 1900 MHz spectrum loaned to the participants by the RAF. Moreover, the GSM core was GSM Phase 2, and not the evolved GSM Phase 2+ core. It was pretty down and dirty ... BUT it achieved its objectives which were probably watered down . << why do you assume that GSM1x is DreamWare if it will be trialed soon? >> GSM1X is DemoWare and it is SlideWare. If it were ready for its 1st phase trial we could call it Trialware. It is not ready for trial and one really has to wonder if the targets for commercialization of 2003 end will really be met. You provided a link to a fine piece of SlideWare which I think at least conceptually depicts targets for either phased development or commercialization although I don't exactly see at what stage this approach will be standardized, or even if there is a formal standardization plan. qualcomm.com How do you read the Phase 2 capability of "1x to GSM Handoff"? Is Q2 2004 for trialing or is Q2 2004 a comercial deliverable? << Why is there no interest on the part of the GSM bunch in maturing IS-833 >> 1. Because IS-833 is not a 3GPP specification. IS-833 is a 3GPP2 specification (even though3GPP participated jointly with 3GPP2 to "complete" (functionally freeze) it back in early 2000 at the mandate of OHG. 2. Because 3GPP standardizes GS GSM/ EDGE in parallel with 3GSM and the migration path for GS GSM/ EDGE and 3GSM is crystal clear through Rel-5 (where they essentially merge) and evolving further in Rel-6. 3. PROBABLY because they don't see a market. A better question that you might ponder was why 3GPP2 had no interest in maturing the standard when that subject was raised a year ago and why IS-833 has just lied dormant. << The Asian manufacturers who have done a great job with 1x and who could flood the European market with 1x sets the minute the gates are opened? >> How do you see these gates opening? The only way I see the opening is in 2.1 GHz spectrum and a technology migration flip. I strongly suggest that you not focus too much of your investing energy on implementation of GSM1X in Europe. If you are not talking about GSM1X, but instead are talking about MSM6300 based 1xRTT handsets, the majority of the European carriers, even those that are global carriers simply don't need a "flood" of 1xRTT handsets. They have the capability today to roam virtually anywhere in the world including Japan and by the time MSM6300 handsets hit the streets they will have the capability to roam in Korea using dual-mode GSM/3GSM WCDMA handsets. Certainly Vodafone and Telefonica can use some percentage of their handsets that are 1xRTT equipped but they certainly don't need to stock a "flood" of them. There will be a fine market for MSM6300 (and its successors) based products. China is tailor made. Every cdmaOne/CDMA carrier will be interested. They have been denied the capability to participate in the revenue stream of international roaming for all t5oo long and will be delighted to leave their period of splendid isolation behind. << You know that GSM1x will work, it is just a matter of time >> Yes. I do. It will work and I am delighted to see Qualcomm and a stripped down value chain trying to commercialize GSM1X. If and when it is commercialized, potentially it becomes another arrow in Qualcomm's quiver, and I'm all for developing anything that can contribute to profitable revenue and earnings growth, while at the same time stimulating technology adoption of Qcdma after the prolonged period of stagnation we have suffered through. However, while I'd be delighted to see a thriving market for GSM1X, I do not personally see great market potential for the technology. I'd be absolutely delighted to see a much larger adoption than what I envision. Perhaps Unicom and others will ACTUALLY PLACE ORDERS for GSM1X componentry some day. I don't think that is a given and there are other ways to skin the cat they are attempting to skin. My jury is out on GSM1X. I'm from Missouri on this one. Best, - Eric -