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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (16584)	3/11/2003 11:38:32 AM
From: jeffbas	Respond to of 78702

Darfot, while your reasoning is plausible, the market is paying very little these days for things that might happen in 2004, much less something that might happen in 5-10 years. Before then we will have Venezuela come back on stream and perhaps full production from Iraq. (I could make a case that the baby boomers retiring will have far more investment implications than anything oil might do - and very little attention is being paid to that.)

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (16584)	3/11/2003 12:06:58 PM
From: Gulo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78702

being generous, one could assume 2 trillion barrels If I remember correctly, Deffeyes' calculations refer to conventional oil (i.e. liquid at room temp). For unconventional deposits, the Athabasca bitumen deposit alone holds somewhere between 1.6 and 2.5 Trillion barrels of oil, of which at about 300 billion barrels are considered recoverable with current technology and at current ($25) oil prices. Proven reserves are 176 billion barrels, producing around 1MBPD (e.g., syncrude.com, industrialheartland.com. The bitumen is upgraded locally or is shipped south for upgrading in Edmonton. Within the next ten years, the region will pump around 2 million barrels per day, ranking it with the mid-sized OPEC countries. Between the Athabascan and Venezuelan bitumen deposits, current conventional reserves, and the potential for Gas-to-liquids technology, I see a cap of $40 for oil for the next hundred years. Upsets in supply could send the price higher, but only temporarily, IMHO. -g

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (16584)	3/12/2003 7:15:30 PM
From: Night Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78702

"those extra 200 billion barrels are a true Pollyanna assumption--like adding 22 brand-new Prudhoe Bay discoveries to known reserves, when we will be lucky to get more than one in the real world." Iraq has much more reserves than the official figures (112B), perhaps another 100B or so, but exploration has understandably been put on hold over the last decade. The Iraqi deputy oil minister recently said that Iraq holds even more than that, a total of 300B Barrels.