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To: MythMan who wrote (227158)3/11/2003 12:46:48 PM
From: reaper  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
you getting long some F here? Visteon and Delphi are also really good stocks.

Cheers



To: MythMan who wrote (227158)3/11/2003 12:52:12 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
Max Pain notes.

Expect it to work 75% of the time

A max pain hit is a touch of max pain during expiry week, does not have to close there

The closer we are to max pain the longer tthey can put off the decline or advance

Typically a strong move towards max pain begins 6-8 trading days from expiry.

Most stocks are still within easy striking distance of max pain. A gap up and 1 day wonder rally lead by MSFT and INTC would do it.

DOW and spoos are more problematic.
8000 on the DOW and spoos 850 or so by my eye count.
Officially I think spoos is higher.

But if we catch OBL we are headed straight there.
Surprise rate cut expiry week could generate some action as well.

With my combination of long, long term puts, and short short term puts any close below 835 I do well. At 810-820 I probably have maximum profit but not quite sure. Below 800 I lose additional profit for sure (vs being unhedged) but I gladly give that up.

M

M