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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SecularBull who wrote (369771)	3/11/2003 4:48:11 PM
From: DuckTapeSunroof	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

Iran probably can't be deterred... unless events beyond our control intervene. (A popular uprising replaces the government and they go the South African route, peace in the neighborhood makes them 'best friends' with us, The US and Russia get together to make them a deal so sweet that it's nearly impossible to turn down....) Like I was saying: Iran is exceedingly unlikely to turn back from producing nuclear weapons (partly in response to Israel's nuclear weapons, partly because they have memories of empire and long to stride the world stage as a 'major player', partly because they have vast internal deposits of uranium, etc.) Now, NK, they are in it for the money, and because they are paranoid about their murderous regime's survival (with good reason: everyone would like to blot these Stalinists out, and free their people). Pressure and favors are likely the only things that could work... and only is used together. Ideally, China, Russia, US, Japan, SK would all get together and jointly develop a policy to confront them... but that ain't happening. China and Russia are happy to stand back and say "hey, our hands aren't going to get burned... it's the US's problem. Japan is scared, and SK more so. Estimates are the first day of a war would kill between 1/2 million and 1.5 million South Koreans and Japanese (and most of the US troops in SK), and that's without nukes being used. Lord knows what the world's economies would look like... but it wouldn't be good. NK knows that once they go nuclear they are essentially 'untouchable', so to dissuade them from this requires powerful carrots AND sticks. My best plan? Public 'multi-party' talks (US, China, Japan, Russia, SK, NK) that will officially end the State of War that has prevailed there since the fifties, all parties will sign 'non-aggression' pacts, SK and Japan will step up to the plate and sign trade deals with NK, NK will submit to International verification of the dismantling of BOTH of it's nuclear weapons programs (plutonium and uranium)... while private one-on-one talks between the US and NK will assure them that if they DON'T take the deal, all their exports will be examined on the high seas under UN flag for prohibited nuclear or missile exports. If found, these items will be seized and destroyed. Also, all trade and aid deals would be frozen. This would cut off much of their export earnings, and they would starve. I know they have stated that an embargo would be an act of war, and that they would immediately attack SK and Japan if an embargo was mounted.... But this would not be an 'embargo' per se. They would remain free to export coal, steel, whatever they have, just the export of prohibited weapons would be banned (and this under UN Security Council authority.) In the private talks, we would also promise them that if they reacted to the 'prohibited weapons sale ban' by attacking SK or Japan in any manner... we would immediately launch attacks to destroy their full nuclear infrastructure, and their leadership. Call the plan: Robust Carrot (mostly public) plus Robust Stick (mostly private).