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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Moneysmith who wrote (81359)	3/11/2003 9:09:55 PM
From: Steeny	Respond to of 281500

I have also been thinking of the comparisons to the Fall of Rome. But the #s don't really play out. The US$ index(@100) is still above it's 20 year average(@96) #s are not exact. US defense spending as % of GDP has dropped steadily since 1990(5.3%) 1999(3.2%) In the same period, Germany rose from 2.8% to 4.9%. GWB proposes spending 379bn on defense in his budget = 3.4% GDP. Its' moving higher as it generally does during Republican administrations, but hardly mimics the Romans. US GDP expected to grow 2.7% this year, Most of Europe is looking at +1.4%. China is gaining as % of global GDP very quickly and I believe will rival the US one day. But I don't think the US is on the wane. It is one of the few developed countries with population stability(fertility rates around 2.1). Most of western Europe is below 2 & populations are falling.