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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: whitepine who wrote (20101)	3/11/2003 10:50:23 PM
From: Ed Ajootian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206104

whitepine, IMO its not just the reaching of a particular commodity price at a particular time, but rather the price staying over a certain level for a certain length of time. I would say if gas prices stay over $5 by July we'll see a 33% move in CRK.

To: whitepine who wrote (20101)	3/12/2003 6:15:06 AM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206104

The price of commodities are high enough, the activity levels need to pick up. Keep 2/3 of your attention of activity levels and service rates and 1/3 on commodity prices. Another few weeks of increasing activity 10+ USA rigs and this should be enough to start the move up through OSX 90.

To: whitepine who wrote (20101)	3/12/2003 7:05:39 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206104

<What price on NG will it take for some of the favorites like NBR and CRK to move up by 33%? > Personally I think even consistently over $4.50 will do it, once the silly season ends. Since IMO we average well over $5.50 during the rebuild season, your 33% is too modest. One scenario going forward is a continuation of the poor feedback loop to drilling activity. Since so much of this stuff is futures and paper trading, we may get a situation where NG prices are muted at $5.00-6.00, the drilling doesn't seriously respond, then everybody wakes up alarmed at the end of summer about the poor build, and we REALLY have a crisis next winter when we actually go to 0 by this time (or earlier) in 2004. Natural gas COT (no particular clues right now, kind of neutral): marketpit.com