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Politics : DON'T START THE WAR -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jlallen who wrote (19652)	3/12/2003 9:10:31 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25898

It's another case of confusing cause and effect. The administration is so narrowly focused on war in Iraq that it is ignoring the consequences, of which recession is only one. Comparing 1991 and 2003 is useful in order to see why the adverse impacts from 1991 (which led to the defeat of Bush senior in the 1992 election) are small compared with even the existing impacts now, before a war has started. 1991 cost paid mainly by Saudi Arabia 2003 cost paid mainly by U.S., and at least 10 times greater 1991 oil prices dropped from a war high near $40/bbl to below $20. 2003 oil prices expected to drop barely at all because of growing world demand in relation to production capacity and lower oil inventories. 1991 government spending kept low because of assistance from Saudi Arabia. 2003 government spending creating highest budget deficits in history, and coupled with irresponsible tax cuts, leading to a deficit in ten years estimated at $1.8 trillion. 1991 military spending on war taken from existing military budgets. 2003 military spending on war not even included in budget--will be added as an emergency appropriation later on, according to Treasury Secretary. 1991 impact on budget minimal because of financial assistance from Saudi Arabia and others. 2003 budget impact called "modest" by Treasury Secretary, who says on interview on public television that he expects 2003 to be pretty much a repeat of 1991. What's he smoking? Art