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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paul_philp who wrote (81481)	3/14/2003 12:18:42 AM
From: Dayuhan	Respond to of 281500

North Korea seems to me to be acting very rationally… I think conventional wisdom on Kim is wrong. He is just playing the only hand he has. He’s playing the only hand that he thinks he has, and he’s playing it in the only way he knows how to play. There are actually other hands that he could play, and other ways he could play this hand. He just doesn’t see them. We obviously have a good deal to gain from not convincing him that war is inevitable, because if he believes that, the the only hand he has left to play is to attack quickly, while we’re tied up in Iraq and our ability to reinforce our Korean presence is constrained. That’s why our short-term (as in months, not years) policy has to be to try to maintain the status quo, or as much of a reduction in tension level as we can arrange, until the Iraq situation is resolved. This one calls, I think, for a little less ideology and machismo and a little more realpolitik.