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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (2762)	3/13/2003 11:43:07 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 12411

Hi Chip, Pardon my delayed response - am visiting Mom in Wisconsin.Dad died a year ago yesterday and wanted to be by Mom's side in a difficult time.She's doing well and very strong. CCI and RSI show some more time needed to complete.Chief's flat diagonal sounds just about right. Large institution in trouble may well be right too.Bonds are way high and any historical derivative wouldn't expect yields dipping below 58 lows? I'm not dialed into how they work - But LTCM bet that historical norms would hold also and with great leverage. Best course of action is to keep eye on Greenspan and Warren Buffet - when they're both in New York -BUY BUY BUY . Only reason I can see why stocks should be bought is They are the only game in town.Bond yields at record lows and commodity prices are soaring.Why does bond yield ignore inflation upticks - Vast irrational market at work - m,ost likely the result of geopolitical situation.If I told you the U.S would initiate a regime change war in the Middle east 5 years ago you'd tell me I needed a padded cell.Now it is a reality and the U.N. is sand bagging what they all said should be done to perpetuete their inactive importance as Americans get tirde of the waiting game. As all of this impatience grinds out insecurity and uncertainty a flight to safety has parked trillions into what is perhaps now the most dangerously inflated instrument out there - bonds and treasuries.Declining dollar is lo longer the safe haven it was and I bet bonds will be the next sure thing to go down the road of huge losers. All of this uncertainty,geopolitical unrest, and Iraq attack war delays,has greatly diffused the focus on a contiuing economic recovery that slowly builds sequential improvement. All stock market declines(off of major distribution tops) end by going sideways first for a long time.This bear is historically old and the sideways lack of action will wear out most.This is a period of accumulation. The games major players spoort pedigrees in wealth and patience.There largest motivation is risk aversion and an appreciation of value.Slow accumulation of greasts tocks at or near book value is a patient mans joy. Why buy stocks? Because no one else is !!!!!! That my friend is why it should be done during this next bottom.Over time the transaction will reward you with a multiple bagger. Caution do not enter without patience and purchasing power. It is afterall the only safe game in town. The lower the price the lower the risk the higher the return in the future. A traders Manifest requires that his positions are taken when the majority of others are going the other way. Trins all but record 5.79 on March 10th shows the lemmings are jumping off the cliff - scared of what's behind them and tired from the long run up the hill - the cliff looks like the only alternative. We must be selective here - but I can almost smell the opportunity - the taste is yet to come. JMHO Bob